What Would Be a Decent Outcome of the Trump–Putin Meeting?

Commentary

Admittedly, spending time with Russian President Vladimir Putin is not exactly a day at the seashore. But U.S. President Donald Trump is perhaps the best prepared of any modern president to deal with types such as Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The Trump administration no doubt has all the advice it needs on how to handle Putin and on what sort of deal to cut, if any.

But we outside observers can at least do our own handicapping.

Perhaps the best—and only—“deliverable” out of the Trump–Putin summit in Alaska should be: cease-fire in place. Avoid, delay, temporize any permanent peace treaty. Do not waste time and political capital. Putin will disregard it anyway. It is beyond reach until Russia has a change in leadership.

And no redrawing of boundaries on a map (as UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain did with Hitler or as U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt and UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill did with Josef Stalin at the Yalta Conference). Once that happens, they will only be redrawn with great effort and misery. And they will be a constant source of trouble.

One need only look at Putin’s MO. He invades, seizes territory with complete illegitimacy, and then settles into a cease-fire. Georgia is a classic example.

Do not legitimize his invasion by any formal recognition of changed boundaries. The terms to use are a cease-fire that—glumly—accepts the territory physically occupied by Russian forces de facto, without attempting to regain Ukrainian control by renewal of conflict. And never accept de jure in a formal peace treaty that the boundaries will be permanently changed. That would legitimize aggression for Russia (and soon do the same for Chinese aggression toward Taiwan and others).

Do not preclude Ukraine from joining NATO. It is necessary to keep that threat if Putin continues to threaten—which he will.

And never agree to a limitation on Ukraine rearming. It’s insanity to rely on future Russian goodwill toward Ukraine (or anyone else).

Don’t discuss Russian reparations for the appalling destruction in Ukraine. The Russians will never agree to voluntarily pay reparations. Therefore, do not waste time attempting to obtain this concession. Instead, the European governments that have frozen funds owned by the Russian government need to develop a legal mechanism to unilaterally transfer them into a reconstruction fund for Ukraine.

Only execute this transfer after the cease-fire, because it will have a chilling effect on the atmosphere. The reason for doing this is not just to “punish” the Russian government for aggression but because reconstruction will be tremendously expensive, and frankly, Ukraine and the Europeans need these funds to get started.

Immediately after the cease-fire, fast-track Ukraine’s joining of the European Union and start reconstruction.

The best hope for the next generation of Russians may well be the example of a Slavic, Orthodox, democratic Ukraine as an equal member state within the European community. The schism Putin has caused with what should be Russia’s closest ally will take decades to mend, if it ever mends. Russia will once again be a truncated vassal state to a rising China.

If Trump can extract a cease-fire to this bloody stalemate, he will have accomplished more than every international institution and European government. That should suffice. The rest can get bogged down in endless negotiations, but the destruction and carnage will cease.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.