NOAA Expects Atlantic Hurricane Season to Be Below Normal Due to El Niño

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin this year, citing potential impacts from El Niño.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. According to the agency’s May 21 outlook, this year’s hurricane season has a 55 percent chance of being “below-normal,” a 35 percent chance of being “near-normal,” and a 10 percent chance of being “above-normal.”

NOAA said this season could produce between eight and 14 named tropical storms with winds reaching 39 miles per hour or higher.

Of those, three to six storms are expected to develop into hurricanes with winds reaching 74 miles per hour, while one to three hurricanes could turn into Category 3 to 5 hurricanes with winds potentially reaching 111 miles per hour or higher, according to the weather agency.

Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings.

“Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible,” he said.

The hurricane season is expected to be below normal due to competing conditions. According to the agency’s outlook, El Niño is likely to develop and intensify during the season, while Atlantic waters are expected to be slightly warmer than normal, and trade winds are expected to weaken.

NOAA National Weather Service director Ken Graham said that El Niño’s conditions are expected to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, but that does not necessarily mean the hurricane season will end up below normal as forecasted.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” Graham said in the outlook. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

NOAA said in a separate outlook that there is a 70 percent chance that hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean will be above normal, and only a 10 percent chance of being below normal this year.

The agency forecast that the season will produce between 15 and 22 named storms in the region, with nine to 14 expected to develop into hurricanes, while five to nine are expected to intensify into major hurricanes.

“The El Niño conditions and lack of strong forcings (SSTs near normal) in the Atlantic are likely to support higher levels of activity in the East Pacific,” the agency stated. “Strong El Niño conditions are typically associated with dramatically elevated levels of activity in the central Pacific.”

According to NOAA’s outlook, the Central Pacific will likely experience an above-normal hurricane season this year, with five to 13 tropical cyclones expected.