DeGrom’s 100th Win Pushes Pitcher Further Into Hall of Fame Conversation in Analytics Era

Jacob deGrom will be an interesting test case for Hall of Fame voters, once the MLB all-star pitcher retires.

DeGrom, in his 13th MLB season, registered his 100th victory as a starting pitcher earlier this week in St. Louis. The 2–1 Texas Rangers triumph over the hometown Cardinals before 21,770 fans at Busch Stadium was the fourth attempt by deGrom, a former two-time National League Cy Young Award winner, at the historic win. He joins an elite group, along with 15 other current MLB starters, who have attained the centennial mark, or greater, in winning ballgames.

With umpire Scott Barry calling balls and strikes during Monday’s game, and Rangers’ Jacob Latz claiming a save on deGrom’s big night, there seemed to be a business-as-usual approach leading into the road game for the big right-hander.

“I was not trying to do too much tonight,” deGrom told MLB.com after his 100th victory. “Going in, having the meeting, talking with Danny [catcher Dan Jansen], I was like, ‘Hey, tonight we’re hitting the glove as many times as we can. ‘Mechanics are what they are. We’re throwing everything else out the window. We’re going back like how I used to pitch. There’s the target. Once the ball leaves my hand, it’s out of my control.”

When the Rangers ace does decide to hang up his spikes for good—and he has given no indication of shutting his career down after his contract with Texas expires once the 2027 season is in the books—how deGrom’s career will be judged by voting members to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown promises to be different than what was the standard decades ago. An argument can be made that 100 wins in today’s analytic baseball universe is the new 300 wins that has long been a guarantee to a spot in Cooperstown’s plaque gallery. Of the 24 300-plus game winners, only one—Roger Clemens—hasn’t been elected to the Hall of Fame.

With clubs holding their starting pitchers to strict pitch counts in today’s game, averaging 84 pitches thrown per five inning starts (15–16 pitches per inning), being positioned to ring up more than 100, and in some cases 200 wins, isn’t a threshold-friendly formula for success. The last time MLB pitching ranks saw a 300 game winner was in June 2009. Randy Johnson, at age 45, attained the feat, hurling for his seventh team in a 22-year Hall of Fame career. His 4,875 strikeouts earned Johnson  second place on the all-time list in that category.

Last month in New York when the Rangers were taking on the Yankees, deGrom spoke with The Athletic about his chances for the Hall of Fame.

“I try not to think about [the Hall of Fame],” deGrom said. “After every start, it’s onto the next one—good, bad, whatever. That’s one over with. Now it’s what can I do to get ready for the next team I’m going to face? If I can go out there and continue to have success,” he said, “maybe I’ll have a chance.”

When healthy, deGrom, 37, has been in the conversation as arguably one of the very best at his craft. Two Tommy John surgeries (2010 and 2023) have caused the Rangers’ ace to miss considerable playing time. Bouncing back to his trusted form last season, deGrom was voted the American League Comeback Player of the Year. Among the New York Mets pitching staff 2014–2022, deGrom won back-to-back National League Cy Young Awards.

Traditionally, 3,000 strikeouts by a pitcher has been an automatic ticket punch into the Hall of Fame. Twenty pitchers have reached the 3,000 milestone, and only one, Curt Schilling, hasn’t given a Hall of Fame induction speech. Along with having innings reduced in today’s MLB game among starters, it’s only natural that their strikeout opportunities have gone down. Now, 2,000 strikeouts could be seen among the analytic aficionados as the new 3,000 plateau needed for Hall of Fame consideration.

DeGrom is coming up on registering his 2,000th strikeout, as the 2014 National League Rookie of the Year currently sits at 1,929. With the Rangers starting a three-game homestand on Friday with the Cleveland Guardians, tied for second place in the American League West, deGrom’s scheduled start for Sunday’s game at Globe Life Field should see him cut down on the 71 strikeouts needed to join the 2,000 club.

The days of 20 game winners per season, or even 30-plus wins as Detroit’s Denny McLain achieved in 1968 (31–6) are ancient baseball history, and likely not to return. The body of work displayed by a starting pitcher, not so much the volume of his work, will likely receive more attention from Hall of Fame voters going forward. DeGrom’s 12 wins last season were the most he earned in nine previous years. If he plays another five seasons, averaging 10 wins a season to get deGrom at 250 for his career seems, even for him, would be a difficult task to achieve.

As all the great moments in deGrom’s career continue this season, it will be a challenge to review his package of performances and not welcome him to Cooperstown when appropriate.