Social Security Benefit Cut Could Average $500 for Some Retirees in 2032, Think Tank Warns

A report released this week said that retirees in some states could see an average $500 cut to their Social Security payments if the trust fund that manages the system runs dry in the next decade.

The Committee for a Responsible Budget, a fiscal policy think tank based in Washington, said in an analysis released on June 3 that the benefit cut could come as early as 2032.

“No state would be spared from the potentially devastating effects of insolvency,” the organization warned. “With less than seven years until Social Security is projected to be insolvent, policymakers need to enact changes to the program as quickly as possible to protect against these scenarios.”

The “average monthly benefit cuts would surpass $500 in 29 states, with the largest cuts impacting retirees in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Utah, and Washington,” the think tank said.

Meanwhile, more than 15 percent of the entire population would be impacted by the cuts in 47 states, with larger shares being affected by the cuts in Delaware, Maine, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wisconsin, according to the group.

The total benefit cuts would also surpass 1 percent of the gross domestic product, or GDP, in 40 states overall, it found. Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, South Carolina, Vermont, and West Virginia would see the greatest impacts on their respective economies.

The analysis comes ahead of an expected report from the Social Security Administration’s annual Trustees Report, which will give an estimate on when the trust fund that manages the program will become insolvent. In its last report, released in June 2025, the trustees projected that the fund would be depleted by 2034, while a report released around the same time about Medicare projected that the federal health insurance program would be depleted by 2033.

Cuts to Social Security could pose significant problems to retirees because many rely on the payments. The Senior Citizens League, a nonprofit advocacy group that provides monthly forecasts about Social Security payment cost-of-living adjustments (COLA), released a survey in 2025 that found significant portions of retired Americans rely heavily on the monthly Social Security.

The group found that 73 percent depend on the payments for more than half their monthly income. Around 39 percent of retirees, meanwhile, depend on the payments for the entirety of their income, it found.

AARP, a nonprofit advocacy organization focusing on older and retired Americans, has raised concerns about the fund being depleted. Last year, the group called on Congress to take action to shore up both Social Security and Medicare as “older Americans nationwide consistently say that the future of Social Security and Medicare are the issues they care about most, and they stand ready to hold politicians across party lines accountable to strengthen these programs for the long term.”

According to a May update from the Social Security Administration (SSA), more than 70 million people receive Social Security payments each month.

Previously, SSA Commissioner Frank Bisignano said that the stability of the trust funds is a “top priority for the Trump Administration,” calling on Congress to act.

“Congress, along with the Social Security Administration and others committed to eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse, must work together to protect and strengthen the trust funds for the millions of Americans who rely on it—now and in the future—for a secure retirement or in the event of a disability,” he said in a statement last year.

The SSA and the U.S. Treasury Department did not respond to an Epoch Times request for comment as of Friday morning.