As Prediction Betting Expands, Insiders Put Military Operations at Risk

Online platforms such as Polymarket are allowing users to wager on an expanding array of topics, providing an avenue for military and geopolitics enthusiasts to put their knowledge to the test. But the prospect of winning big may pose a powerful temptation for people with access to secretive information about sensitive military operations.

Variously referred to as online prediction markets and betting platforms, these websites facilitate wagers on a range of topics, from sporting events to geopolitical developments. They have even allowed users to place wagers on the timing of U.S. military actions overseas.

Potential insiders looking to win big on bets about forthcoming military operations may hide their identities behind anonymous screen names, but their wagers are still publicly visible. Particularly bold wagers about military actions could alert their intended targets and compromise the operations.

Earlier this year, U.S. federal prosecutors raised such concerns as they brought a criminal indictment against Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army special operations soldier. Prosecutors asserted Van Dyke was involved in planning the Jan. 3 raid to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, had access to classified information on the mission, and used his inside knowledge to make numerous Polymarket wagers on the matter to ultimately net $400,000.

Van Dyke has been charged with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction. He has pleaded not guilty to the charges.

A more recent report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) raised the possibility that insider trading on military operations is even more prevalent.

The Aug. 20 report identified 556 Polymarket accounts that the organization believes show signs of insider trading. As the organization analyzed Polymarket betting patterns, it found that these accounts, which it termed “Orcas,” placed longshot wagers on a narrow range of topics, with incredible success rates compared to the average platform user.

Of these 556 Orca accounts, 152 were identified as specializing in wagers on military operations and foreign policy developments.

The organization found that around half of these 152 suspicious military-oriented accounts placed wagers on Polymarket within two days of being created. These 152 accounts wagered $2 million on longshot predictions, saw a win rate of 97.2 percent, and earned $8 million in profit.

New Wagers, New Risks

Betting has long centered on sporting events. Online prediction markets such as Polymarket now represent an emerging and increasingly popular venue for more niche enthusiasts, and new insiders, to potentially win big.

“Polymarket offers such diversity of these problematic military and political markets that information advantages can be used in a variety of ways, including by betting on the direct consequences of a military action,” ACDC Co-Director Michael Hornsby said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.

In the months before the raid to capture Maduro, the U.S. military amassed an armada of warships and strike aircraft and began bombing vessels accused of facilitating narcotics trafficking at the Venezuelan leader’s behest. President Donald Trump continued to ramp up diplomatic pressure on Caracas and raised the prospect of military action for weeks leading up to the special operations raid.

By the fall of 2025, as media attention on Venezuela mounted, Polymarket began facilitating wagers on when Maduro would be out of power and when U.S. forces would enter the country. 

The ACDC did not share its full data set for military-related longshot bets. The Epoch Times was able to identify multiple Polymarket accounts that placed timely and successful wagers concerning Maduro’s capture and removal from power.

Of the Polymarket accounts that bet on the timing of Maduro’s departure from power, the five top-performing accounts placed wagers within two days of the Jan. 3 special operations raid and have no other history on the platform.

Polymarket offers no direct means of contacting users through the platform.

The charging documents in Van Dyke’s case have not identified his alleged Polymarket accounts by name. The Department of Justice declined to volunteer that information when reached for comment.

Van Dyke’s attorneys did not respond to requests for comment.

After a U.S. fighter jet was shot down over Iran on April 3, leaving two U.S. airmen stranded behind enemy lines, predictions began to emerge on Polymarket about when the U.S. military would retrieve the airmen. The wagers prompted backlash, including from Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), and Polymarket subsequently shut down trades on the rescue operation.

“We took this market down immediately as it does not meet our integrity standards,” Polymarket said. “It should not have been posted, and we are investigating how this slipped through our internal safeguards.”

Betting on Their Own Success

While media reports have credited the Army’s Delta Force with effecting Maduro’s capture, the military remains aloof on all references to the special mission unit. Likewise, those within Delta Force and other so-called “tier one” military units are expected to adopt an ethos of silent professionalism.

“Anybody who works at that level … enter those units with an understanding that most if not everything they do will probably never be made public,” retired Army Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer, a former intelligence officer, told The Epoch Times. “And their involvement in that activity is supposed to be as secret as the activity itself.” 

When asked about Van Dyke’s arrest in April, Trump likened the case to that of professional baseball player Pete Rose, who has been barred from potential Hall of Fame status for betting on games in which he either played or coached. Proponents of placing Rose among the list of baseball’s greats, including Trump, have argued Rose only ever bet on himself and his team to win, and was not trying to make a buck through an act of self-sabotage.

“Now, if he bet against his team, that would be no good, but he bet on his own team,” Trump told media at the White House.

During an April 24 episode of the Tier1 Podcast, self-identified Delta Force veteran and podcast host Brent Tucker also noted the comparison between Rose’s baseball betting controversy and the criminal allegations against Van Dyke. Still, Tucker opposed the alleged conduct.

“You have to be better than that. You’re part of an elite organization at a high level,” he said during the podcast episode.

Speaking with The Epoch Times more recently, Tucker said betting on a pending military operation is clearly wrong.

When asked whether the impulse to bet on the success of one’s own mission is a byproduct of a special operations culture that selects for highly confident candidates, Tucker said, “Yes and no. … They’re willing to bet on their own missions with their life.”

Tucker described Delta Force as the most professional military unit he’s ever been a part of. But he’s been critical of how other special operations veterans, including other Delta Force members, have conducted themselves in view of the general public. 

“We’re not perfect, and there will always be the human element of it, but the only thing you can really do is minimize it and set a culture where that is not acceptable and not the standard,” he said.

Who Follows the Smart Money?

Though insiders may seek anonymity before making predictions on Polymarket, other keen-eyed users may still be able to deduce who has the inside track.

The ACDC found that Orca accounts’ predictions concerning the timing of the June 2025 and February 2026 U.S. strikes on Iran preceded similar wagers by larger institutional accounts known as “Whales,” and by automated “Bot” accounts.

“In both cases, longshot bets by Orcas preceded longshot bets by Whales and Bots,” the report states. “This supports the hypothesis that Whales and Bots, which observe transactions on the blockchain, may enter the market in response to signs of insider trading like risky longshot bets by fresh or low-activity wallets, akin to Orcas.”

The organization noted the existence of tools that can alert users to wagers being placed by high-volume profitable accounts and accounts that exhibit insider risk indicators.

The same tools that can alert an avid predictions market user to insider trading indicators could also alert the intelligence services of an adversary nation to a potential hostile military operation against their territory.

“Even just one trade on classified information is quickly amplified by bots and exposed by insider and whale watchers,” the report states. “To those who can read the signs, this is akin to a national security leak broadcast live on social media; there is no hope of containing the situation.”

Adjusting to New Realities

Concerns about military insiders trading through online prediction markets are not unique to the United States. 

In March, Israeli authorities brought charges against an Israeli Air Force reserve major on allegations he placed Polymarket predictions on the June 2025 Israeli military operations against Iran. Last month, a second Israeli Air Force major was similarly accused of making Polymarket predictions about strikes on Iran and Yemen.

Hornsby said the ACDC’s data on possible insider trading include predictions on whether Israeli forces would enter Syria in 2024, the timing of a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, and the timing of Russian forces capturing specific towns on the frontlines of the war in Ukraine.

The data go back to January 2021.

Polymarket’s terms of service explicitly prohibit users from attempting to trade on predictions on the basis of confidential information.

As news of Van Dyke’s arrest emerged on April 24, Polymarket announced it had alerted the Department of Justice and cooperated with investigators on the matter.

“Today’s arrest is proof the system works,” the company said.

A source familiar with the matter said Van Dyke tried to set up an account on Kalshi, another online predictions market, but was rejected by the platform’s “know your customer” verification process.

The ACDC has suggested additional steps to curtail insider trading on high-risk markets, including requiring prediction market platforms to collect government-issued identification on their users, and restricting or prohibiting certain categories of predictions.

In June, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a rule to block online prediction markets from facilitating wagers on matters of war, assassinations, and terrorism.

For military planners, the rising popularity of these online markets is just another turn in a long-running battle to prevent leaks.

Shaffer noted the U.S. military has historically managed programs to identify leak risks and will likely continue updating these programs to reflect new trends in the online information space.

“We’re going to be looking at any site or any activity that counterintelligence folks believe may be … an amalgamator of information relating to sensitive military or intelligence activities,” he said.