Voeckler in Yellow in Paris? It Could Happen

Since Thomas Voeckler won the race leader’s yellow jersey in Stage Nine of the 2011 Tour de France, the experts have been waiting for the Europcar rider to pass the jersey on to one of the established favorites. Yet here it is Stage 16, and Voeckler looks like he could keep it indefinitely.

The 32-year-old Frenchman, riding in his eighth Tour de France, seemed to get stronger with each stage in the Pyrenees. In Stage 14 he matched the best in cycling pedal-stroke for pedal-stroke on the climb up to Plateau de Beille.

The common wisdom is that all the big-named General Classification contenders are saving their best for the Alps, planning to make all-out attacks on the Galibier and Alpe-d’Huez. There is another possibility—that none of these riders is significantly stronger than the rest.

Everybody is expecting one or another to launch an explosive attack that drops all the rest. What if none of them can launch such attacks? What if all the top riders can cover each other’s best efforts?

In that case, we might see Thomas Voeckler maintain his lead all the way to Paris.

Lance Armstrong Weighs In

Lance Armstrong, who, with seven Tour victories, probably knows his stuff, tweeted during Stage 14, “If Voeckler makes it to the top w/ the leaders today then we have to say he can win the TdF. He’s got 2 mins and they can’t shake him.”

After the stage Armstrong tweeted: “He wasn’t ‘swinging off the back’ 2day. He was 1 of the strongest. The others weren’t assertive and/or aggressive enough 2 make a selection.”

So far the French rider has managed to withstand the strongest attacks of his more famous competitors. If he can hang on through the Alps, he will then face a more difficult test: Stage 20, the final time trial.

Alberto Contador is a consummate time trialer, but he is four minutes back, and has shown no sign of being able to erase that. Cadel Evans is two minutes back, and equally skilled at the time trial. Neither of the Schlecks is particularly good at time trialing, though Andy turned in a great performance in 2010, to finish second overall.

France has not had a Tour winner since 1985—that alone will motivate Voeckler to great efforts. Further, the course is not suited to a pure time trialer. With its two sizeable hills, the course suits a power rider, an all-rounder; Voeckler will have a great chance to maintain at least some of his margin.

Again Lance Armstrong agrees. “He has 2:06 on Evans. Final TT is 42km. He’s French. It’s the Tour de FRANCE,” tweeted the seven-time champion. “He won’t lose 2:06 in the final time trial ASSUMING … He keeps them close on Alpe d’Huez.”

Armstrong has a special insight into the abilities of Thomas Voeckler. In 2004, Armstrong chased Voeckler up the Plateau de Beille, the same slope where this year’s GC contenders couldn’t drop him. In 2004, Voeckler beat Armstrong to the top to keep the yellow jersey—as he did in 2011.

The only question is how much more Thomas Voeckler has in his tank. This is a seasoned rider, at the peak of his career, in the best form he has ever shown. Equally important, he has a wingman, Pierre Rollande, who has led Voeckler up the toughest hills.

Cadel Evans, Ivan Basso, and Alberto Contador have been making the climbs solo. The Schleck brothers have been helping each other, but at the end, only one of them has had the legs in any given stage. Pierre Rolland has been there every time to get Voeckler to the front.

Motivated by the thought of yellow in Paris for his homeland, guided by his French teammate, riding for a French team in the greatest sporting event in France … it does not seem far-fetched to imagine that Thomas Voeckler might continue to surprise the experts right onto the Champs Elysees.

Next…The Competition