Although it was building for months, the pre-release attack targeted towards the documentary “Melania” kicked into high gear last Tuesday (1/27) with an article published in the New Republic (NR). In the piece it is stated that the movie is “struggling” at the box office.
Please consider the fact that this was four full days before the movie opened. Again, before the movie opened. There are three possible reasons for this. One: The folks at the NR are in possession of a crystal ball and can see into the future. Two: the publication based its decision on data readily available on the ticket selling site Fandango.com and cherry-picked ticket sales in deep blue cities. Three: The NR desperately wanted the movie to tank.
I’m going with both two and three. Why, you might ask? I was checking Fandango presales at the same time, only in acknowledged medium to deep red parts of Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Montana.
Care to guess what I found out?
Presales of tickets in those regions were brisk. Most screenings (meaning 50 percent plus 1) were 75 percent full and there were multiple sell-outs. In all fairness, most screenings starting after 9:00 p.m. were weak. The attendance peaked at starting times between 1:00 p.m. and 3:00 p.m. across the board.
So, what does this mean in the great scheme of things? Very little. People who vote blue weren’t buying tickets and those who lean red were. Another thing to consider: How often do you buy a movie ticket online with a credit card days or even weeks in advance?
When I do have to buy a ticket, it’s with cash on the day of the screening. I purchased my ticket for a Friday 10:30 a.m. screening of “Melania” in north central Florida at 10:25 a.m. In a theater with 125 seats, about 90 were filled. Another non-advertised screening at 12:30 p.m. was sold out to a church group.
The Prognosticators
Beginning on Monday the 26th, sites predicting tickets sales (Deadline, Gold Derby, Variety, and many others) were guessing the opening weekend box office sales for “Melania” would be between $1 and $2 million. By Wednesday, that number inched up to $3 million. On Thursday it was $4 million.
As of Saturday, Jan. 31, “Melania” was projected to take in over $8 million at the domestic box office, the highest amount of any documentary in the last 10 years.
So, why was there such a big miss on the part of the experts? It wasn’t as much a miss as it was a wish. The Hollywood intelligentsia is vehemently against anything and everything related to, produced, or endorsed by President Trump and, by extension, his family.
Although I didn’t bring it up in my review, “Melania” is thoroughly apolitical. It has no hidden agenda. It is about her day-to-day activities leading up to the 2025 inauguration, her relationship with her parents (one deceased) and her son, Barron.
The Critics
Whenever a studio chooses to not screen a movie for the press, I’m dubious. What are they hiding? Do they think it stinks and wish to keep the damage at a minimum? Usually, the answer is yes, but in this instance, no.
There were no press screenings for “Melania,” and I understand why. The left-leaning press would have loved to have seen the movie in advance and crucified it—but only if they didn’t have to pay to do so.
If they were honest, they could not have reviewed something they hadn’t seen. To their immense credit, the majority of these critics adhered to this credo. They didn’t see the movie and didn’t review it. I tip my hat to them. The few that did predictably panned it.
This past weekend, “Melania” broke a 27-year-old Rotten Tomatoes record set by “The Boondock Saints.” That 1999 movie had a critics rating of 26 percent and an audience rating of 91 percent—a 65 percent divide.
As of Friday, “Melania” had a 6 to 99 degree ratio. As of Saturday afternoon, it jumped up to 11 to 99, due to my positive review, resulting in a differential of 88 percent. I’m sorry, but not at all sorry for that.
“Melania” has proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that the movie industry and the left-leaning press hasn’t got a clue about what Americans want to see and what they value.
If the Hollywood machine and their dutiful marketing and critical minions continue to ignore these blatant and obvious audience indicators, it will result in their own collective peril.
Do I care that I’m not in lockstep with the majority of the world press? Not in the least.
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