Researchers at the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) recently analyzed reports from studies such as the 2025 National Dating Landscape Survey and the Monitoring the Future study, run by the University of Michigan. They reveal a decline in dating so steep that IFS has labeled it “the dating recession.” IFS is known for its empirical take on social and cultural trends and its ability to draw conclusions from raw data and statistics.
In the 1980s, about 87 percent of 12th graders said they went out on dates. Today, that figure has shrunk to 47 percent.
According to a joint IFS and Wheatley Institute report, in 2025, only about 30 percent of young adults reported that they were dating. About 74 percent of women and 64 percent of men had not dated or had dated only a few times in the past 12 months.
And according to Monitoring the Future data, between 1976 and 2010, 83 percent of 12th grade girls reported that they expected to marry one day. Approximately 76 percent of boys said the same. In the years following, that trend shifted. As of 2024, 72 percent of 12th grade boys said they expected to marry versus only 67 percent of the girls.
Low Self-Confidence
One primary cause for this recession among the young is an absence of ease and self-assurance in dating, said Grant Bailey, a research fellow and editor at IFS.
“In research we did with the Wheatley Institute, we found that one of the barriers is self-confidence,” he said. “Both young men and young women have sort of negative views of themselves, whether they would be attractive to a partner. About half of young men say they don’t have the confidence to approach a potential romantic partner.”
“There’s a lot of people who say that prior breakups had made them doubtful about the future success of their dating,” Bailey said. “And there’s a lot of people who just never had that experience of asking someone out, pointing back to what’s happening in high school. There’s just no sort of experience with dating.”
According to the 2025 National Dating Landscape Survey, less than 40 percent of study respondents said they believed that they had the skill to discern a good dating partner, and only 34 percent were confident in their ability to discuss their feelings with that partner.
Bailey also pointed out that many young people are also unwilling to take risks, including those associated with dating. For instance, asking someone out carries the risk of being rejected or of being hurt in a relationship.
“We think there’s a huge technological component to this, especially since 2010 with the rise of social media where you’re able to turn inward and anonymously connect to the Internet behind a screen,” he said. “That’s had devastating effects on young adult self-esteem. You’re doing this at ages 14, 15, 16 for hours on end, and it’s been shown this hurts young people. And then young adults are entering their 20s, and even their 30s, with very little experience, very little confidence.
“And of course, that can’t translate into marriage and those next steps in building a life.”
When the Goal Line Goes Missing
Bailey pointed out that polls and data show that a majority of parents rate a successful career and financial security as high-end goals for their children, with marriage and children falling further down the list. Yet other studies have repeatedly shown that marriage and family are the keys to a fulfilled life, more so than money or a career.
“So we have this issue where parents aren’t teaching their children the importance of getting married,” Bailey said. “Getting married when you control for things like income turns out to be a remarkable boon for personal flourishing.
“That’s a challenge for young people because they don’t even know that you should be dating with an eye toward marriage—that’s going to be more important in the end than what you do for a job or how much money you make. A young person who doesn’t know this isn’t going to pursue it.”
A 2024 IFS study titled “The Societal Cost of the Marriage Decline” found that marriage rates are plummeting. A Pew Report cited by IFS found that one in four 40-year-old Americans have never been married. This same IFS study notes that the increasing cost of raising a family and the largely negative narratives about marriage found on social media and in the culture at large are contributing to this trend. Meanwhile, birth rates in the United States are at an all-time low, well under the number of children needed to maintain a healthy replacement rate in society.
The downward trends in dating, the first step to marriage and family, seem to promise even fewer marriages and fewer children in the future.
Intentional Dating
Bailey shared IFS research unmasking two myths counterproductive to a good marriage. The first is the idea, still predominant in American culture, that cohabitation before the wedding ups the odds of staying married. The data, Bailey revealed, show the opposite to be true. Second, studies also refute the belief that sowing one’s wild oats before marriage benefits that union.
“It’s actually a really good idea to delay cohabitation and sex until you find the right person and you get married to them,” he said.
For those who want to date with marriage in mind, Bailey has the following suggestions.
First, just getting out of the house will increase a person’s chances of meeting someone.
“People dating less in high school tracks perfectly well with the decline of social activity in general,” he said. “If you want to date, if you want to get married, go to as many events as you can. I know it’s hard, you just want to stay in, but make yourself do it. Make some friends and do so in a place where you’re going to fit in.”
In addition, look in the right places.
“A big predicator of marriage stability is being on the same page when it comes to religion and politics,” Bailey said. “Having an alignment on the big questions—your purpose in life, the purpose of dating and marriage—also goes a long way. If you’re a member of some church congregation, it’s a good idea to look for a spouse in those young adult groups.”
