China’s Official Birth Rate Falls to Lowest in Decades

China recorded its lowest birth rate ever in 2025, underscoring the challenges Beijing faces in averting a demographic crisis of its own making.

Only 7.92 million babies were born last year, down from the 9.54 million registered in 2024, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Jan. 19.

That translates to a birth rate of 5.63 per 1,000 people, the lowest since official recordkeeping began in 1949, the year the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seized control of the mainland.

Facing a looming demographic crisis that analysts say could jeopardize the CCP’s geopolitical ambitions, the Chinese leadership has rolled out an array of incentives.

From cash handouts to tax breaks, local officials have tried various initiatives in recent years to encourage couples to have two or three babies. The central authorities in Beijing also launched free preschool education programs this past autumn, after introducing nationwide subsidies that offer roughly $500 per child younger than age 3 each year.

Among the latest measures is the implementation of value-added taxes on condoms and other contraceptives, which started on Jan. 1.

Accompanying the fiscal support is a sweeping propaganda campaign. China’s state media and Chinese officials have sought to promote what they call “positive” and “healthy” views on marriage and childbearing, aiming to erase the impact of a nearly five-decade-old family planning scheme on the younger generation.

From 1979 to 2015, Chinese couples who had more than one child often faced heavy fines, job loss, and even forced abortions under a nationwide scheme known as the one-child policy. Officials once touted that the policy prevented 400 million births, arguing that it reduced pressure on resources and the environment. This year marks 10 years since the regime abandoned the notorious policy and allowed families to have two children. In a bid to jumpstart population growth, Beijing further raised the cap to three in 2021.

However, despite Beijing’s efforts, many young Chinese—who grapple with high urban living costs and job uncertainty amid the economic slowdown—have appeared unmoved and reluctant to start a family. Data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs show that the number of marriage applications plunged by one-fifth in 2025, hitting a record low. At the same time, the divorce rate has also been rising, with the annual number of divorces increasing to 2.62 million last year.

In addition to a dwindling birthrate, China is facing a growing number of elderly citizens who need support. The latest data show that as many as 323.4 million people are aged 60 and older, accounting for nearly 23 percent of the country’s population.

China’s own projections show that by 2035, adults aged 60 and older will account for at least 30 percent of the population, exceeding 400 million—a figure greater than the entire population of the United States.

In response to the aging population, Chinese authorities approved a plan in 2025 to gradually raise the retirement age over the course of 15 years.

Last year, the number of deaths rose to 11.31 million, up from 10.93 million in 2024.

As a result, the total population recorded its fourth consecutive year of decline, down by 3.39 million to 1.41 billion.

The reliability of China’s official statistics has long faced questions, as the CCP has a record of concealing information deemed harmful to its image, especially data related to the COVID-19 pandemic. It remains unclear how many Chinese died during the COVID-19 pandemic and how it affected China’s demographics.