Iranian Leaders Face Growing Vulnerability Following Decapitation Strikes

Commentary

The killing of many key militant Shiite leaders, including Ayatollah Khamenei, is a major blow to the Islamist supremacist mindset that is central to the Khomeinist brand of Shiite Islam currently ruling Iran, and the successful targeting of so many senior Islamist leaders does damage their credibility as having God’s favor, making the regime more vulnerable. But is the loss of key leaders and credibility enough to bring about regime change?

Some Context

The activist Shiite Khomeinists who hold power in Iran make up a minority of the overall population, but it is a sizable minority of some 10 to 15 million, made up of Muslims who embrace a militant Islamist supremacist ideology that makes them a formidable force. So the question is: Does the majority of 75 million or so, which is more moderate overall, have the will to confront activist Shiite Khomeinists who are out in the streets by the hundreds of thousands in support of the current regime? In other words, being willing to state on a survey that you don’t support the current regime is a whole lot different than going up against hundreds of thousands of screaming, worked-up regime supporters whose worldview has been directly and powerfully challenged by successful decapitation strikes on the leaders they believe to be infallible and fully backed up and empowered by Allah. Sure, these protests are regime-organized, but the people participating in them are not just going to disappear if anti-regime protesters show up.

Then you have up to 190,000 members of the IRGC, which, unlike the regular Army, the Artesh, are recruited and indoctrinated specifically to protect the “ideological legacy” of the revolution. On top of that, there is the Basij militia, roughly 600,000 to one million volunteers embedded in every neighborhood, university, and office, providing a constant surveillance and “shock troop” presence that handles the initial, often most violent, stages of protest suppression.

All this sounds pretty negative in terms of potential regime change, so let’s look at some positives for regime change chances. Recent polling shows that a large majority of Iranians want regime change, with many viewing the current regime as an alien occupying force. Iran is facing currency instability, rising inflation expectations, emerging shortages, public-safety breakdowns, and escalating factional conflict. The country is also facing massive inflation and the possibility of a great famine, which is producing significant discontent with the regime. The regime’s support of terrorism has resulted in sanctions that have radically reduced the standard of living.

The Persian Factor

Some 60 percent of Iranians identify as Persian, with only 2 percent identifying as Arab. Many Iranians prioritize their “Iraniyat” (Iranian/Persian identity) over the “Islamiyat” (Islamic identity) emphasized by the state. This puts the Persian mindset and culture at odds with the mindset mandated by the Khomeinists, which has more in common with Salafist or Wahhabist (Sunni) interpretations of the Quran than traditional Persian-influenced perspectives on religion. For example, prior to the ultra-conservative Khomeinists taking over Iran, women were much freer to participate fully in Iranian life. And that mindset persists today among the majority of the Iranian population. So there is an awful lot of support for regime change in Iran, and there could be all sorts of things happening behind the scenes or beneath the surface that make regime change more likely than it might appear at first glance.

Regime Change Probability?

Regional actions such as by Kurdish forces combined with other potential signs of regime instability may weaken the Khomeinists’ power and credibility enough to allow the vast majority of Iranians to get rid of a government they have hated for decades. Let’s hope so, as the only other way to truly ensure the Khomeinists don’t get the bomb is boots on the ground.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.