Nuclear Deterrent Choices

Commentary

The U.S. Congress has 465 House and Senate members up for election in November 2026 with a predicted 60 new members promised just from current retirements and other open seats. The new Congress will face having to assess and pass a defense budget as well as implicitly approve a national security strategy embedded in such a budget. Of critical importance will be the nuclear deterrent direction the new Congress decides to take, as there will probably be very starkly different choices on the table.

The nuclear program of record was initially established in negotiations between the Obama administration and Congress over approval of the 2010 New START treaty, led by Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), a stalwart for defense, especially missile defense and warhead production, and James Miller, an administration official.

That United States program, given the subsequent Russian and Chinese nuclear expansions, has been modified with additional programs, with significant additions now approved by this current Congress that largely followed the recommendations of the Strategic Posture Commission of the United States’ October 2023 report.

The program of record as passed by Congress and signed into law by the president supports 400 new Sentinel land based intercontintental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to be deployed between 2030 and 2050; 12–15 Columbia-class submmarines with a complement of at least 192 upgraded D5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles; 100 new B-21 Raider strategic bombers of which 20 will be deployed as part of the nuclear deterrent; a new nuclear capable sea-launched cruise missile to augment the U.S. extended deterrent capability; a complement of low-yield D5 warheads to further enhance U.S. extended deterrence; a goal of having the capacity to build 80 warhead pits a year, enabling the U.S. to maintain and secure a robust nuclear warhead force; and a Golden Dome multiple layered regional and national missile defense capable of intercepting a variety of missile and drone threats, while utilizing currently deployed missile and air defense technologies, which in June 2025 were between 87 and 99 percent successful in intercepting Iranian enemy missiles, drones, and other projectiles launched at Israel.

All the modern nuclear force will cost $25 billion in the fiscal year 2026 defense budget, with an additional increase of $5.9 billion in the National Nuclear Security Administration budget, out of a total $58 billion to $60 billion of investment for both modernization and legacy force maintenance.

Both House and Senate members, including Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.), have introduced legislation to unilaterally curtail the planned program of record, including major elements of the U.S. nuclear deterrent and the Golden Dome missile defense. Their proposals would pursue a strange hybrid combination of unilateral restraint and outright abolition, giving the United States the smallest deterrent in 75 years, a nearly absent regional extended nuclear deterrent, and a relatively minimalist missile defense capability, despite that the current U.S. nuclear forces have already been in service between 43 and 63 years, making the U.S. nuclear forces the oldest in U.S. deterrent history.

First, their proposals would eliminate all space-based elements of missile defense, which would discard the very backbone of the new and advanced missile defense technology now being developed.

Second, they would eliminate 250 of the 400 Minuteman III missiles (MMIII) and eliminate the new Sentinel ICBM altogether, ensuring that after the next two decades, the United States would largely be out of the nuclear deterrent ICBM business as the legacy Minuteman missiles, now 55 years in service, will have to be taken down, having reached obsolescence.

Third, the new Columbia-class submarine acquisition would be reduced to as low as four subs, from the 12–15 planned submarines, which even with a 50 percent at-sea deployment rate would allow the United States to field only one submarine in each of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, with 32 missiles and roughly 246 warheads having to hold at risk a target set many times larger.

Fourth, the plan envisioned by Sanders and Markey would eliminate all strategic bombers from the U.S. nuclear deterrent, leaving the United States with 152 combined ICBM silos and submarine bases and, over time, a monad of just two Navy bases with two submarines at sea, or only four targets/assets, the elimination of which would put the United States out of the nuclear business. Eventually, Russia and China combined would have 1,000 strategic, long-range warheads for every U.S. nuclear launch asset, compared with six-to-one today.

However, the congressional abolition crowd wants to go even further. The proposals would eliminate the extended nuclear deterrent capability the United States has in Europe, consisting of gravity bombs aboard theater aircraft, as well as eliminating any funding for additional theater systems, including cruise missiles aboard aircraft and submarines, such as the nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile.

As for pit production, a joint House–Senate bill would eliminate the current objective of securing 80 pits per year and reduce that number to no more than 30, and it would achieve the capability no earlier than 2050.

In the face of a joint China–Russia deployed force projected at 4500 strategic, long-range nuclear warheads by 2035, the United States would have a mini-deterrent of a combined 214 ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles and at most 950 warheads—if the MMIII legacy force of 150 missiles each had three warheads and the remaining D5 missiles each had eight warheads per missile, both the maximum capability. This of course gives the United States no upload or surge capability.

Even worse, with the eventual and relatively near-term phasing out of the MMIII because of age/obsolescence, the U.S. strategic, long-range nuclear deterrent would be limited to 512 warheads, of which roughly 33–50 percent would be on alert and at sea at any one time, but outgunned by China and Russia by a nine-to-one margin, to say nothing of a regional theater nuclear capability outgunned as well but by a 5,000-to-zero warhead balance.

The United States has never deliberately built a minimalist nuclear deterrent, one only a fraction as large as that of its enemy. Even more worrisome, these proposals would leave our enemies with nuclear forces multiple times larger and more capable than such a planned U.S. nuclear deterrent force, while also diminishing a missile defense capable of dealing with accidental, unauthorized, or coercive nuclear threats.

A change in the makeup of the U.S. Congress is a choice on the ballot in November. Depending on the choice made, with it could come putting in charge of Congress and its key committees those who seek the near virtual nuclear disarmament of the United States.

From RealClearWire

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.