Advocacy Group Releases New Social Security COLA Projections for 2027 Payments

A prominent advocacy group for retired Americans on Tuesday predicted that the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for next year’s Social Security payments will increase by 3.8 percent, coming as the federal government released its anticipated monthly inflation data.

The Senior Citizens League (SCL), which offers monthly forecasts on COLA for the next year’s payments, said in a statement that the 3.8 percent is “unchanged from last month and 1.0 percentage points higher than this year’s COLA,” which was 2.8 percent.

The group said that if the prediction remains intact, the average benefit for Social Security recipients would increase by $73.62 per month, or from $1,937.53 to $2,011.15, in 2027.

In a statement, SCL Executive Director Shannon Benton called on Congress to take steps to pass the Social Security 2100 Act, which “would provide long-term relief to seniors losing buying power due to high inflation” by raising the monthly benefits by 2 percentage points.

It would also set the new minimum benefit threshold to 125 percent of the federal poverty line and would force the Social Security Administration’s COLA calculation to use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Elderly (CPI-E). Currently, COLA uses the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.

The CPI-E, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is entirely “based on the spending patterns of Americans 62 years of age and older.” However, the department noted that the index has “several limitations” and that conclusions drawn from an analysis based on the CPI-E “should be treated as tentative.”

The SCL has long pushed for Congress to overhaul the method for calculating Social Security’s COLA and adopt a system that uses the CPI-E.

Benton said the bill should be passed because “poverty is increasing rapidly among American seniors, who make up the fastest-growing portion of the homeless population” and called on officials to adjust “the minimum benefit to above the federal poverty line.”

The COLA for next year’s payments is calculated by using the CPI-W readings for the months of July, August, and September. The Social Security Administration then generally announces the adjustment in October.

The prediction comes as U.S. consumer inflation slowed more than expected in June due in part to a drop in energy prices. The report from the Labor Department on Tuesday found that on a yearly basis, the CPI declined to 3.5 percent in June, down from a year-over-year gain of 4.2 percent in May and lower than many economists expected.

According to the report, a wider range of prices cooled last month than economists had forecast. Electricity prices, which have been elevated by spiking demand, fell 1 percent from May to June, though they are still 4 percent higher than a year ago. Clothing prices dropped 0.6 percent from May to June, but they are 3.9 percent higher than a year earlier.

Groceries rose 0.2 percent from May to June and are up 2.7 percent from last year, while apartment rental costs cooled, rising just 0.1 percent last month and 2.8 percent from a year ago, the report found.

Around 71 million Americans receive Social Security benefits, as of January 2026, while 7.5 million receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI), according to the government. The COLA also applies to monthly SSI payments.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.