Release of Key October CPI, Jobs Data Impacted by Shutdown: White House

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on Nov. 12 that the government shutdown may have prevented key October economic data from ever being released.

House lawmakers voted to end the six-week-old spending impasse in a 222–209 vote on Nov. 12, and President Donald Trump signed the bill to reopen the government.

But although Washington is set to reopen its doors, the record-breaking closure might have done permanent damage to the federal government’s data collection efforts, Leavitt stated.

“The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October [consumer price index] and jobs reports likely never being released,” Leavitt said at a press briefing. “All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period.”

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, speaking with Fox News on Nov. 13, clarified that the October jobs report may not include the unemployment rate.

“The household survey wasn’t conducted in October, so we’re going to get half the employment report,” he said.

“We’ll get the jobs part, but we won’t get the unemployment rate. And that’ll just be for one month.”

The monthly nonfarm payrolls report contains two separate data sources: the establishment survey and the household survey.

The establishment portion is conducted with more than 100,000 businesses and government agencies to determine employment, earnings, and the number of hours worked.

The household survey samples approximately 60,000 households to gather data on the unemployment rate and labor force participation.

Economists, financial markets, and monetary policymakers have been turning to a broad array of alternative measurements to assess the economy’s overall health.

Releases of the monthly nonfarm payrolls and the consumer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are the two most critical reports that have been delayed. Other vital reports include gross domestic product, retail sales, consumer spending, producer inflation, and import and export data.

Economic observers have been debating whether all of these October reports would even be published. Even if federal agencies release the numbers, the veracity of the data may be called into question because the government shutdown, which started on Oct. 1, affected data collection and reporting work.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that without the data, the central bank might skip an interest rate cut in the current easing cycle at next month’s meeting.

“If you ask me, ‘Could it affect the December meeting?’ I’m not saying it’s going to, but what do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down,” the central bank chief told reporters at last month’s post-meeting press conference.

Leavitt, meanwhile, warned that the shutdown could have adversely affected fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures, echoing concerns from other senior administration officials and private-sector economists.

Hassett, appearing at the Economic Club of Washington on Nov. 12, agreed that the shutdown was harming growth prospects for the fourth quarter.

“For sure it’s going to have an impact on this quarter’s GDP,” he said, adding that it could trim as much as 1.5 percent from the October–December GDP.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also told ABC’s “This Week” on Nov. 9 that the gridlock could cut growth in half this quarter.

“We’ve seen an impact on the economy from day one, but it’s getting worse and worse,” Bessent said.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that the U.S. economy could lose up to $14 billion as a result of the shutdown.

The White House had projected that the shutdown would shave about $15 billion per week from the economy.

Experts are divided as to whether the shutdown had a significant effect on economic conditions.

Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, said the private-sector statistics are “flashing caution.”

“Shutdowns aren’t just symbolic standoffs. They slow the economy, obscure the facts, and impact real people,” Hamrick said in a statement to The Epoch Times.

Economists at ITR Economics suggest that alternative data sources indicate the economy is staying on track.

They cited the Redbook Index, which showed that U.S. consumer spending continued to grow, as well as the U.S. Weekly Economic Index, which suggested that growth would remain intact. Data from payroll processing firm ADP also highlighted job growth in October among private businesses.

While the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Model estimate predicts approximately 4 percent growth in the third quarter, the New York Fed’s Nowcast suggests a 2.1 percent expansion in the fourth quarter.