October Sees Slower Inflation for US Consumer Goods: OpenBrand

Consumers experienced relief in October as price inflation for durables and personal goods slowed for the first time in three months, according to data intelligence firm OpenBrand.

Data from the OpenBrand Consumer Price Index, released on Nov. 10, show prices for big-ticket goods and personal-care products ticked up 0.22 percent last month, down from the 0.48 percent increase in September.

The government shutdown, now in its 40th day, has made it challenging to determine trends forming in the broader economy. Economic observers have turned to alternative measurements, including OpenBrand, which monitors daily price movements across the marketplace.

“Deceleration of price growth was observed across all of our price groups except communication devices, with prices of both appliances and personal goods seeing nominal price deflation in October,” OpenBrand said in the report.

“Amongst appliances, decreases were observed across most categories of products.”

The downward price growth trajectory was seen in various categories.

Laundry appliances, for example, increased by 0.9 percent in August, but subsequently declined by 0.48 percent in September and 0.86 percent in October. Likewise, hair dryers increased 1.15 percent in August, but eased to 0.82 percent in September and fell by 1.27 percent in October.

Falling prices had been driven by the magnitude of merchants’ discounting activity, although the frequency of these discounts was little changed.

Truflation, another real-time tracker of consumer and spending data relying on a trove of data points, suggests price inflation is below the federal government’s reported rate.

The Truflation U.S. Inflation Index, updated on Oct. 10, was 2.52 percent. This is down from the recent high of 2.7 percent and is virtually unchanged from a year ago.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index last month, indicating a headline annual inflation rate of 3 percent—cooler than the market consensus.

Meanwhile, other pockets of the economy suggest that shoppers’ wallets are feeling a respite.

Gasoline prices are lower than they were a year ago. The national average for a gallon of gas is $3.07, according to the American Automobile Association, down from $3.09 at the same time last year. The latest increase has been skewed by refinery maintenance in California, which has raised prices in the area to $4.72 a gallon—the highest in the nation.

“Still, the national average is lower than it was this time last year, and gas prices should remain on a quiet path as we get closer to Thanksgiving,” the association said in an update.

The annual Thanksgiving feast will be slightly less expensive this year for a 10-person feast, with prices declining by about 3 percent, experts at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute said in a report.

“In a win for consumers and a testament to the behind-the-scenes coordination between producers and retailers, the American consumer will have reason to celebrate this Thanksgiving,” the report stated.

The Need for Data

In the absence of key economic data, alternative measurements have taken center stage.

The federal agency was scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index for October later this week. Economists had anticipated that 12-month consumer inflation would remain unchanged at 3 percent, while producer inflation was expected to grow at a monthly rate of 0.3 percent.

“We have witnessed early signs of tariff pressures building in trade-exposed sectors, including apparel, home furnishings, and motor vehicle parts and equipment to-date. Still, prices for other trade-exposed sectors, new vehicles, for example, have been largely flat so far,” RBC economists said in a Nov. 7 note.

Because the federal government shutdown suspended data collection and reporting efforts, market watchers and policymakers have been seeking substitute sources in a foggy landscape.

Based on the information released, the data suggest that firms have been reluctant to pass any tariff-related costs onto price-sensitive customers.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book—a periodical summary of economic conditions across the central bank’s regional districts—highlighted that businesses have faced higher input costs, but have attempted to refrain from penalizing their shoppers.

Despite private-sector measures, Fed officials might be hitting the pause button in the institution’s current rate-cutting cycle.

“Without this data it will make it more challenging for the Fed to arguably cut in December,” Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at last month’s post-meeting press conference, said a December interest rate was “not a foregone conclusion—far from it.”

“What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down,” Powell told reporters, noting that it is difficult to prognosticate where conditions are heading without government data, be it the nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics or gross domestic product from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

“But there’s a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious about moving.”

Investors see a 61 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut, CME FedWatch Tool data show.