US Annual Inflation Ticks Up to 2.4 Percent, Below Market Estimate

The U.S. annual inflation rate ticked up for the first time since January, signaling potential renewed price pressures as President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs begin to work their way through the economy.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation rose to 2.4 percent in May from 2.3 percent in the previous month.

Inflation in the core consumer price index (CPI), which omits the volatile energy and food categories, was unchanged at 2.8 percent.

On a monthly basis, CPI and core CPI inflation rose by 0.1 percent.

All of last month’s readings came in below economists’ expectations.

Shelter inflation accounted for much of the increase in consumer prices, rising by 0.3 percent in May for the second straight month. The shelter index is up 3.9 percent from a year ago.

While home and rental prices remain elevated, industry data indicate that the housing market is stabilizing as more supply comes online.

The food index advanced by 0.3 percent, with both supermarket and away-from-home prices jumping by 0.3 percent from April to May.

Within the food index, egg prices declined for the second consecutive month, tumbling by 2.7 percent. On a 12-month basis, however, egg prices are up by more than 41 percent.

Energy costs fell by 1 percent last month after surging by 0.7 percent. Additionally, the gasoline index plunged by 2.6 percent and is down 12 percent year over year. Electricity climbed by 0.9 percent and rose by 4.5 percent in the 12 months ending in May.

The reprieve in energy prices might be short-lived as crude oil futures surged more than 5 percent over the last month. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude is trading above $66 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, although it is still down nearly 8 percent this year.

The indexes for new vehicles and used cars and trucks dropped by 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. Apparel also slipped by 0.4 percent.

Services inflation was flat for the third straight month at 3.7 percent. Supercore inflation—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure as it concentrates on core ex-housing—rose flat monthly but edged up to 2.9 percent year over year.

“Shelter and energy are going to keep the disinflation trend intact—prices are moving down in two of the largest categories,” Jamie Cox, a managing partner for Harris Financial Group, wrote in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

The president called the CPI data “great numbers,” reiterating his demand for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

“Fed should lower one full point,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “Would pay much less interest on debt coming due. So important!”

Market Reaction

U.S. stocks turned positive in pre-market trading as investors cheered a better-than-expected CPI report and the president confirmed a trade framework with China.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index advanced by nearly 0.6 percent. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broader S&P 500 rose by about 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

Yields on U.S. government bonds were mostly in the red, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury slipping below 4.43 percent.

The U.S. dollar index, a gauge of the greenback against a weighted basket of currencies, sank by 0.4 percent. The index has tanked by 9 percent this year.

“In a year where tariffs and inflation concerns have been moving markets, good news from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this morning should move markets higher today,” Chris Zaccarelli, the CIO for Northlight Asset Management, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

“The narrative around tariff-induced inflation should subside.”

Zaccarelli said there are still reasons to be cautious.

Inflation Expectations Stabilize

In recent months, inflation expectations have surged, driven by concerns that the president’s sweeping global tariff plans would reignite price pressures.

However, various surveys over the past couple of weeks have indicated that trade jitters have dissipated.

The New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed that the one-year inflation outlook fell to 3.2 percent in May from 3.6 percent in the previous month. The three- and five-year horizons also eased to 3 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively.

Year-ahead inflation expectations also stabilized in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. After registering sharp increases in the first four months of 2025, the one-year inflation gauge was little changed last month.

But while consumer fears surrounding inflation appear to have diminished, economists still expect a reacceleration later this year.

According to Morgan Stanley, inflation will reach a peak between 3 and 3.5 percent in the third quarter, “as companies pass some of their tariff-related costs through to customers.”

“Consumer prices should begin to slow in 2026 amid weaker demand and lower business spending,” the bank said in a May 28 research note.

Any tariff-related increase to inflation should be short-lived, according to Sal Guatieri, a senior economist and director at BMO Economics.

“While tariffs have made little impression so far, they are expected to push inflation above 3% later this year,” he said in a note. “Still, barring new levies, a moderating trend should resume next year amid looser labour market conditions.”

Looking ahead to the next inflation reports, producer prices are expected to record a modest increase. The consensus estimate signals a 0.2 percent jump in the producer price index, which measures the prices paid for goods and services by businesses and signals pipeline inflation.

In addition, according to the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting model, the central bank’s preferred inflation metric, personal consumption expenditure inflation, is anticipated to tick up to 2.3 percent from 2.1 percent.

What This Means for the Fed

Investors overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at the June 17–18 policy meeting. Futures market data from the CME FedWatch Tool suggest the Fed will not pull the trigger on the next quarter-point rate cut until September.

Monetary policymakers say they can afford to be patient because the U.S. economy is performing well and the labor market remains intact.

The Fed is waiting for the effects of tariff-related inflation to appear in the data and then determine whether this is a one-time price adjustment or a long-term change to prices.

Appearing at the Economic Club of Chicago in April, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that the institution’s dual mandate—maximum employment and price stability—could be threatened simultaneously.

“If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close,” Powell said in prepared remarks.

“For the time being, we are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

Mark Malek, the CIO of Siebert Financial, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times: “Keeping the labor market healthy is one of only two responsibilities shouldered by the central bank, keeping inflation in check is the other. The latter is in relatively good shape but can possibly rise in months ahead due to tariffs.”

If renewed inflation pressures appear, the Fed would be in no position to follow through on rate cuts, “unless the labor market collapses,” Malek added.

While weakness in the U.S. labor market is showing up, employment conditions remain robust.

The economy added a better-than-expected 139,000 new jobs in May, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent. Labor demand has also been solid, with 7.4 million job openings in April.

At the same time, initial jobless claims—a measure of the number of individuals filing for first-time unemployment benefits—have risen to the highest level since early October 2024. Additionally, private sector hiring came in less than expected and weakened from April, totaling 37,000.

Fed economists think the labor market will “weaken substantially” as the year progresses, according to minutes from the May Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting.

The June meeting will provide an update to the Summary of Economic Projections, a quarterly survey of officials’ near- and long-term expectations for economic and monetary policy.

Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist, said he anticipates that the Fed will leave policy unchanged until March.

“Tariffs tend to boost inflation before slowing growth, so the Fed will likely worry more about containing inflation than maintaining employment until late this year, when inflation peaks and begins to decline,” Gapen said in a note.

“After inflation starts to fall, the labor market should continue to deteriorate. At that point, we think that the Fed will cut rates past neutral and end up with 175 basis points in cuts by the end of 2026.”

The benchmark federal funds rate, which influences business and consumer borrowing and the federal government’s interest payments, is in a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent.