Recession or Not? What the Model Shows Amid Iran War Prices | Jim Doti

Geopolitical tensions are shifting expectations for the U.S. economy, but not always in the direction most people assume. Most analyses track a single variable and draw conclusions about economic costs and gains. But how does it really look as a full picture?

In this episode, Jim Doti, president emeritus at Chapman University, walks through what Chapman’s econometric model shows when oil prices, defense spending, the deficit, and household wealth are factored together, and what that means for the economy during conflict. His annual economic forecast has ranked among the most accurate of the country’s top blue-chip forecasters.