Consumer Confidence Improves as Americans Grow More Optimistic About Future

U.S. consumer confidence edged higher in July as Americans grew slightly more upbeat about the economy’s outlook, though worries over job availability and tariffs lingered, according to a July 29 report from the business think tank The Conference Board.

The group’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 from a revised 95.2 in June, reversing last month’s slide as optimism about future economic conditions improved markedly. The gain was driven by improved expectations for future business conditions, incomes, and job prospects, though views on current conditions slipped slightly.

“Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. “In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence.”

The Expectations Index climbed 4.5 points to 74.4, while the Present Situation Index—reflecting assessments of current business and labor conditions—fell 1.5 points to 131.5.

Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group in Boston, said rising asset prices are bolstering sentiment.

“Of course the consumer is confident—their investments are rising almost daily, earnings are better than expected, and the tariff scare is muted,” she told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

Since taking office on Jan. 20, President Donald Trump’s tariff moves have initially rattled financial markets, while his new trade agreements have raised duties on U.S. trading partners—boosting Treasury revenues.

Over the weekend, the European Union agreed to a 15 percent U.S. tariff hike and pledged substantial purchases of American energy and weapons. The news sent the dollar to its strongest level against the euro since May, with the U.S. Dollar Index jumping more than 1 percent on Monday—its biggest one‑day gain in over two months—and extending those gains on Tuesday.

The Conference Board’s survey responses suggest tariffs remain a key worry despite improvement in the economic outlook.

“Consumers’ write-in responses showed that tariffs remained top of mind and were mostly associated with concerns that they would lead to higher prices,” Guichard said. “In addition, references to high prices and inflation rose in July, even though consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations eased slightly to 5.8%, down from 5.9% in June and a peak of 7% in April.”

The survey period for the Conference Board’s confidence report closed before the latest trade deals were announced, “so there’s a good chance confidence increases further” in August, economist E.J. Antoni predicted in a post on X.

Even with improved expectations about the future, worries about current job availability rose in the latest Conference Board report. The share of consumers saying jobs were “hard to get” rose to 18.9 percent, the highest since March 2021 and the seventh straight monthly increase, even as 30.2 percent said jobs were “plentiful.”

Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a statement that the Conference Board’s job‑availability gauge is often a reliable leading indicator for payroll growth. “It deteriorated again in July, consistent with payroll growth below the 107K consensus. We look for a 75K print,” he said.

The Conference Board figures come ahead of Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls release, which will show whether hiring momentum is slowing. The U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs last month, beating expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent and wages rose 0.4 percent on the month.

Additional labor‑market data released Tuesday pointed to further cooling. Job openings fell by 275,000 to 7.43 million in June, according to the Labor Department, undershooting forecasts and marking a drop in vacancies across sectors such as accommodation, food services, and health care. The number of workers quitting their jobs—a measure of confidence in finding new employment—also declined by 128,000 to 3.14 million.