Fentanyl Precursor Shortage Was Behind the Decline in Overdose Deaths Since 2023: Study

A new study examining the drop in opioid overdose deaths suggests that the decrease, starting in mid-2023, is due to a disruption in the supply chain of fentanyl precursor chemicals from China, which has reduced street drug potency.

The study, published in the journal Science this month, looked at the decline in fatal overdoses tied to synthetic opioids, mainly fentanyl.

Fatal overdoses attributed to synthetic opioids had been on the rise in the United States over the past 15 years, peaking at 76,000 in 2023, according to the study abstract.

But by mid-2023, the number of deaths unexpectedly began to drop, falling by more than one-third by the end of 2024.

Public health policymakers offered possible explanations ranging from expanded use of naloxone, which reverses opioid overdoses, to tougher drug enforcement.

A team of researchers led by Kasey Vangelov at the University of Maryland decided to investigate, using government data from both the United States and Canada. They examined a range of data, including drug seizure logs and Reddit posts on drugs.

Such drug supply “droughts” have been documented to reduce deaths, such as when Australia’s heroin supply suddenly dropped in 2001, resulting in a 60 percent decline in opioid overdose mortality.

Ultimately, the researchers concluded that “a major disruption in the illicit fentanyl trade,” possibly tied to Chinese regime actions, was behind the drop in the fentanyl supply, resulting in fewer deaths.

China reported that it took action against the manufacture and export of fentanyl precursors in late 2023, following a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the study states.

“For example, in November 2023, China’s Office of the National Narcotics Control Commission published a notice calling for caution in the sale of substances that can be used to make drugs,” the study reads.

By June 2024, Beijing claimed that it had taken down 140,000 advertisements and 14 online platforms relating to fentanyl precursors.

With supplies squeezed, drug dealers and cartels had to make their fentanyl go further, according to the study. Fentanyl and other street drugs are often cut with other substances such as baby powder or sugar.

The idea is similar to the “shrinkflation” concept seen in grocery stores, in which the price stays the same, but the amount of the product is reduced.

The study examined U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration seizure counts and potency tests of illicit drugs seized.

“Purity and fentanyl-related overdose death rates both turned down at roughly the same time,” the study states.

The study authors determined that the purity of fentanyl powder increased dramatically in 2022, peaking at about 25 percent by weight from March to July 2023. It then fell by more than half by the end of 2024 to 11 percent by weight, according to the study.

“Likewise, by the end of 2024, the monthly rate of [fentanyl overdose deaths] involving synthetic opioids had declined by more than half from their May 2023 peak,” the study reads.

The researchers also sorted through the social media platform Reddit for the keywords of “fentanyl” and “drought” to see whether it indicated a shortage.

“The Reddit data suggest perceived supply shortages beginning in the middle of 2023—roughly coinciding with the beginning of the decline in fatal overdoses,” the study states.