Special Election Race Is Neck and Neck in Tennessee District Long Held by Republicans

Democrat Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps are running neck and neck in the Dec. 2 special election for Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District seat, according to a new poll released on Nov 26.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey shows 48 percent of voters support Epps and 46 percent support Behn to succeed Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) after he retired to take a job in the private sector.  The district has been represented by Republicans since 1983.

The poll showed 5 percent of voters in the district are still undecided, while 2 percent plan to vote for other candidates.

The four independent candidates in the race include vessel captain Teresa “Terri” Christie, combat pilot Jon Thorp, small business owner Bobby Dodge, and pastor Robert James Sutherby.

“The special election in Tennessee’s Seventh District will come down to what groups are motivated to turn out on Election Day, and who stays home,” Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said.

Voter turnout was down 75 percent in the special election’s primary on Oct. 7 compared with the 2024 general election, the watchdog news organization Tennessee Lookout reported.

Only 67,000 votes were cast in the off-cycle special election primary compared with 330,000 when Green was elected.

Kimball predicts a “stark gender divide” in the results.

“Men break for Van Epps by nine points, 51 percent to 42 percent, whereas women break for Behn by six, 50 percent to 44 percent,” Kimball said.

The poll, conducted Nov. 22-24, showed that 38 percent of the voters claimed the economy is their top issue, followed by housing affordability (15 percent), health care (13 percent), threats to democracy (13 percent), immigration (6 percent), crime (5 percent), and education (5 percent).

President Donald Trump, who holds a 49 percent job disapproval rating among voters in the district,  has endorsed Epps and actively promoted the Ohio native to help Republicans maintain their slight lead in the House.

“I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person,” President Trump posted on Truth Social on Nov. 25.

“You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”

Behn received support from Trump’s 2024 rival as she tries to rewrite the playbook for what’s possible for Democrats in the Deep South.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, in Nashville for her book tour, spoke at a canvassing event for the Knoxville native.

But Behn faced controversy from Republicans and even musician Kid Rock, who owns a bar in the district, after a resurfaced podcast clip from 2020 showed her saying she “hates” Nashville, country music, and the tourists who flood the area.

Behn, who currently serves as a Tennessee state representative, denied that she hates Nashville.

“Now, I always want Nashville to be better, and I want Nashville to be a place where working people can thrive, right?” Behn said in a social media video on Nov. 20. “But sure, I get mad at the bachelorettes sometimes. I get mad at the pedal taverns.”

The 119th Congress has 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and three vacancies. The tally does not reflect the decision by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) to resign on Jan. 5, 2026.

The Seventh District seat has been held by Republicans for four decades and covers 14 counties in middle Tennessee, including downtown Nashville and Williamson County, one of the wealthiest counties in the United States. The last Democrat to represent the district was Ed Jones, who served from 1973 to 1983.