As Alberta Referendum Nears, Opposing Sides Make Final Push

CALGARY—With less than a week until Alberta holds its referendum, supporters and opponents of independence are making a final push to get their message to voters.

Advance voting runs from Oct. 13 to Oct. 17, with referendum day set for Oct. 19. Polling has consistently shown substantially more support for remaining in Canada than for pursuing independence, but both sides say turnout could prove decisive.

A Léger poll of Albertans conducted Oct. 2 to 4 found 70 percent of respondents backed staying in Canada, 22 percent supported holding a binding referendum on separation, and 7 percent were undecided.

A key message from both camps has been for supporters to go out and vote and bring others with them as well.

“I cannot stress enough how important it is to get out there and vote on this, because I don’t know when the next opportunity might be if we don’t get it,” Kathy Flett, co-founder of the Alberta Women’s Independence Network, told the crowd at a pro-independence event organized by Let’s Talk Alberta in Calgary on Oct. 13.

Although she said she wasn’t sure if the referendum to hold a separation vote would cross the 50 percent mark, Flett said she believes political leaders who oppose independence are “unbelievably nervous” ahead of referendum day.

Fellow coordinator Tanya Clemens asked pro-independence supporters to tell 10 people they know about the issues and ask them each to invite three more friends or family members to also find their own 10 people ahead of referendum day.

“People get busy, people get apathetic, and sometimes all it takes is a phone call or a quick text message to help someone to remember to cast their ballot,” she said.

Similar messages were made for the remain side by former Alberta premiers Jason Kenney and Rachel Notley, who now co-chair the Alberta and Canada: Stronger Together organization. The two jointly spoke out against Alberta independence at an Edmonton Chamber of Commerce event on Oct. 13, with Kenney saying turnout will be crucial.

“Spend a few minutes in the next week reaching out to people like that. That will be the difference maker,” he said.

Notley likewise urged those who support remaining in Canada to encourage others to participate.

“What we need to do is not only vote Option 1, but also make sure that every single person you know who’s in that camp gets out and votes option one,” she said.

The Oct. 19 referendum will ask Albertans to choose between Option 1, for Alberta to remain a province of Canada, and Option 2, for the provincial government to begin the legal process required to hold a binding referendum on separation. Voters will also be asked nine additional questions on giving the province more authority over immigration, the judiciary, and other issues affecting the province.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said she personally favours Alberta remaining in Canada but believes citizens who undertook the democratic process of organizing petition signatures should have the opportunity to have their petition put to vote if it meets the requirements. The referendum follows competing petitions: one advocating independence, led by activist Mitch Sylvestre, and another supporting remaining in Canada, organized by former Alberta Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk.

After casting her vote for Alberta to remain in Canada at an advance poll on Oct. 14, Smith said the best way to “send Ottawa a message” about the province’s grievances is to give her government “a strong mandate on the other nine questions,” which cover abolishing the unelected Senate, giving Alberta the same immigration control rights as Quebec, and allowing the province instead of the federal government to appoint judges to its highest courts.

Smith said on Oct. 9 that she would not hold another separation referendum during her premiership if Alberta voters choose to remain in Canada.

‘Our Voters Are More Motivated’

Edward Gao, 33, an Alberta independence supporter who has been helping to organize the campaign, said outreach efforts including the previous petition drive have helped galvanize support for independence.

“Our voters are more motivated,” he said in an interview in Calgary.

Gao said support was particularly strong in parts of rural Alberta, but he also sees growing interest among immigrants and urban residents frustrated with Ottawa’s economic policies.

“Even in the city, I think that there’s growing support among people that are just concerned about Alberta’s position in Confederation,” he said.

The Let Alberta Decide campaign, launched in Calgary in June, has organized rallies, vehicle convoys, town halls, social media outreach, and advertising. It is encouraging supporters to bring other voters to the polls through an initiative it calls “Bring Your Ten.”

Independence advocate Mahmoud Mourra said he believes all sides of the political spectrum who oppose independence are trying to demonize the independence movement and paint it as unfairly xenophobic.

“What they [are] trying to [do is] poison our society, our community, create a division among our society,” he said at the Oct. 13 Let’s Talk Alberta event.

Madison Holmes, who advocates for independence through a podcast with her sister Maycee and through outreach activities across the province, said the message of independence is spreading and reaching an increasingly younger audience.

“Alberta independence is non-partisan to the younger generation, and so because it’s their future we’re talking about, they don’t see their future as political,” she told The Epoch Times on the sidelines of the event.

‘It Just Depends on the Turnout’

Opponents of Alberta’s separation are also stepping up efforts to get supporters to the polls on Oct. 19, via door-to-door canvassing, phone banks, town halls, and outreach on social media and billboards.

Alberta NDP MLA Irfan Sabir hosted an anti-separation information session in Calgary on Oct. 12 attended by several hundred people.

Sabir accused Smith of distracting from more pressing concerns facing Albertans such as improving health care and education in the province. Elections Alberta estimates the referendum will cost $120 million and require at least 60,000 election workers, prompting debate over the costs.

“At least five, six schools could have been built with this money,” Sabir told The Epoch Times on the sidelines of the event.

Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt, who appeared in a panel discussion at the gathering, said that while Albertans have legitimate concerns over the treatment they’ve received from Ottawa, separation is not the answer.

“Yes, there are grievances that Albertans have, and legitimate grievances, but blowing things up is not the answer,” he told attendees. “I am a proud Canadian, and I am a very proud Albertan, and I do not want to have to choose between the two.”

Jim Lobsinger, who was waving Forever Canada signs at Nose Hill Park in Calgary with his wife Mary, said that despite people being “apathetic” at the beginning of the campaign, he now receives frequent honks of support as he spreads the message.

“It just depends on the turnout. We have to get a turnout. That’s the thing,” he told The Epoch Times, referring to the upcoming vote.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is scheduled to attend two Forever Canadian rallies this week, at Calgary’s BMO Centre on Oct. 15 and Edmonton’s EXPO Centre on Oct. 16. This follows a Thanksgiving Day message in which Carney said Canada is “worth fighting for” and cautioned that separation would bring considerable uncertainty and risk.

Competing Visions

Speaking at the Oct. 13 Let’s Talk Alberta event, lawyer and pro-independence organizer Keith Wilson said Alberta’s vast oil reserves, fertile farmland, and expanding economic prospects in technology, tourism, and a young workforce hold enormous promise for a future in which it either is entirely independent or has more leverage with Ottawa as a result of having more pro-independence votes.

“We can make Alberta the most prosperous, successful country in the world, and we can also help the rest of Canada at the same time,” Wilson said, adding, “If a majority of Albertans vote for option two, it sends the message: We want a better deal. We’re tired of being taken advantage of.”

Jo-Anne Dicken, a 59-year-old independence supporter from Calgary, said Alberta would be much better off on its own.

“On every measurable metric, we would be better off being independent. We’d be one of the richest, richest countries in the world right off the bat,” Dicken told The Epoch Times.

Fellow independence supporter Melanie Jones of Strathmore, Alta., said Alberta’s economy, particularly its energy sector, has been held back for decades by policies from Ottawa.

“I’ve noticed that Albertans tend to be placated occasionally when a conservative government comes in or when there’s chatter about pipelines,” she told The Epoch Times. “But very consistently, we have been shut down by overregulation, too many studies, all kinds of ridiculous things that are stopping us from developing our industries.”

Jones rejected suggestions that an independent Alberta would seek to join the United States, describing the prospect as a “red herring.”

“We don’t want to be controlled by California and New York any more than we want to be controlled by Ontario and Quebec,” she said.

In her Oct. 13 comments, Notley said an independent Alberta would lose access to the TMX pipeline and its expansion as well as the Pacific Link pipeline, making it more costly to reach export markets through British Columbia.

Kenney said Carney has changed his approach to Alberta compared to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and urged Alberta to “lead not leave” and to “learn to take yes for an answer.”

Hugh Moloney, a teacher who supports remaining in Canada, disputed the economic case for independence.

“There’s no advantage at all. It would be a rough path and very expensive,” Moloney told The Epoch Times.

Moloney, who stopped to pick up a Forever Canada sign from Lobsinger, said Alberta benefits considerably from remaining in Canada and that separation would be a serious mistake.

“The stay in Canada should win handily, but that doesn’t mean the separation movement is going to go away. It’s probably not going to go away for a while,” he added.

In addition to Premier Smith, opposition for separation has also come from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre who told supporters in Edmonton on Sept. 29 that Alberta’s problems can be fixed within Confederation.

“Separation will not solve those problems. Becoming even more Canadian will,” Poilievre said, while criticizing the policies of the federal Liberals toward Alberta.

The Undecided

Despite the intensity and competing positions of the campaigns, a number of Albertans remain undecided.

Noah Bears, 25, of Calgary said he shares some of the frustrations behind the independence movement but is not convinced separation would work. He said he worries it could create significant economic uncertainty and upheaval.

“I understand the frustrations of where people are coming from and wanting to separate. I think that for a long time, we did have economic situations that made a lot of people frustrated, and understandably so,” Bears said, though adding that he’s hopeful about the new more Alberta-friendly direction being taken by Carney.

Bears said his decision on how to vote in the referendum could come down to a “game-time decision.”

Although supporters and opponents disagree sharply over Alberta’s future, most of them, in the week ahead of the referendum, echoed the belief that the independence movement is unlikely to disappear, regardless of the referendum outcome.

“It’s not a radical fringe movement,” Dicken said.