Australia’s birth rate continues its descent, and despite billions of dollars of taxpayer-backed incentives like childcare subsidies, paid parental leave, and workplace flexibility, there appears to be no sign of stopping.
The Australian Labor government estimates it will invest $4.8 billion (US$3.39 billion) in paid parental leave in 2026 (pdf). As of Jan. 5, 2026, more Australian parents can also access three days of guaranteed childcare, slated to cost $430 million over four years.
An extra $1 billion will go to the Building Early Education Fund for expand early learning services in the regions. This is alongside existing measures like the “baby bonus.”
These are not the only initiatives Australian governments have tried over the years, yet the national total fertility rate is still expected to fall to a record low 1.42 children per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1.
Even the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), home to Canberra and the country’s largest public sector workforce (36.9 percent of all public service workers) with arguably some of the most generous incentives for families, still saw the lowest birth rate across all jurisdictions, sitting at 1.28 children per woman at the end of 2024.
So why, after decades of policy interventions and generous public benefits, are Australians still choosing to have fewer children?
In an interview with The Epoch Times, David Maywald, author of “The Relentless War on Masculinity: Does It Ever End?” says the answer lies not just in finance and policy, but in broader cultural shifts.
The ‘Cultural Reprogramming’ of Family
According to Maywald, governmental intervention misunderstands the root cause behind the decline.
Maywald says the problem lies in a long-term “cultural reprogramming”—a shift in societal values away from traditional family formation and towards strong individualism, prioritising careers, and feminism.
“They’ve been programmed [women] to focus on getting highly educated, having a career, and financial independence,” Maywald says. “Don’t ever rely on a man. Be your own person. Go your own way.”
The cultural messaging, he says, has taken root in particular demographics, especially among progressive and left-leaning groups.
“There’s been a big decline in leftist, liberal, progressive women in terms of their likelihood to have children.”
In fact, an NBC poll found young women aged 18-29 placed “having children” and “being married” near the bottom of their list of long-term priorities.
Social Media Amplifies One Narrow Segment of Views
Australia’s fertility collapse fits into what Maywald sees as broader cultural conflict over masculinity, gender, and power.
The war on masculinity, as Maywald believes, gained pace from the early 60s and amplified in the digital landscape.
“It’s gained pace from the early 60s and second wave feminism, amplified by third wave and then taken to another level by the fourth wave feminists,” he said.
“But what we’re seeing at the moment, because of social media algorithms, is an amplification of extreme views that aren’t held by all women.”
Fourth wave feminism leverages the digital space and tries to find new ways to advocate for women including sexual harassment, body shaming, and rape culture.
Maywald explains that social media algorithms were also influencing the type of content being promoted via clickbait that can easily attract likes, comments, or shares.
“The rest of the media has had to follow that, and so you’ve got clickbait and confected controversy where those types of third and fourth wave feminist lines have been over-exaggerated.”
Beyond Culture, Other Reasons Behind Decline Declining
Australia’s declining birth rate is not unique. Many other nations, including Japan, South Korea, and Italy, have some of the lowest birth rates in the world.
Sociology Professor Leah Ruppanner from the University of Melbourne believes the reasons are complex.
“Women’s education has been rising steadily for decades, with Australian women now better educated than men,” she said in a media release, adding that education delays fertility and family building.
“Women are often not having babies in their teens and early twenties because they are getting their education and launching their careers.”
Ruppanner further argues that there are also economic barriers that make it difficult for young people to have children.
“It is much harder for young people to achieve the traditional markers of adulthood—stable jobs and buying a first home,” she said, adding the cost of children was “astronomical.”
Latest figures by the Australian Bureau of Statistics report wage growth was outpaced by inflation. The annual wage growth was 3.4 percent in 2025. But in the same period, inflation grew by 3.8 percent.
This is on top of ballooning housing costs across the nation’s capital cities.
“Average childcare costs in Australia have outpaced inflation. School tuitions, even for public schools, absorb a significant portion of parents’ budgets,” Ruppanner said.
“All of this is on top of greater time spent in paid employment. So, to do parenting ‘right,’ according to current social norms, is to be deeply invested in our children in terms of time, energy and resources, including money.
“If you multiply this by more children, the costs go up.”
Hungary’s Counter-Cultural Strategy
One attempt to counteract the long-term decline is being attempted by Hungary.
“I think what’s important about the Hungary example is they weren’t all financial or welfare or tax driven. Some [changes] were cultural changes, they enshrined the value of families and motherhood in their constitution,” Maywald explains.
“They have been partially successful in turning around that programming that most Western women have been subjected to.”
Hungary offers lifetime income tax exemptions for women with four children (pdf) and generous housing subsidies.
Hungary’s birth rate was 1.56 in 2024, which increased from the early 2010s (1.23 children per woman) and has remained steady over the past 10 years (1.50 to 1.60).
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