How Similar Is Carney’s China Push to Trudeau’s Approach Pre-Meng Affair?

News Analysis

The Carney Liberals’ desire to establish closer relations with Beijing resembles that of the Trudeau government after it came into power in 2015. But how does the situation compare in form a decade later, after the world and the bilateral relationship between the two countries have undergone key changes?

The presence of U.S. President Donald Trump in the White House, and Canada’s trade pact with the United States, made the possibility of Canada pursuing free trade with China, as former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had attempted, a non-starter. But alternatively, Trump’s policies are cited by Ottawa as justification for its pursuit of deeper ties with Beijing.

Most recently on the China file, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne led a delegation of top Canadian financial officials on a China visit last week to boost closer economic links with the Chinese communist regime.

Prime Minister Mark Carney started the process to re-engage with China early in his mandate as a means to diversify trade amid U.S. tariffs on Canada, but his stated starting point is different than Trudeau’s in 2015.

Trudeau’s efforts to deepen ties hit a wall in late 2018 when Beijing arbitrarily detained two Canadians during the Meng Wanzhou affair, in retaliation against Canada for arresting the Huawei executive to comply with a U.S. extradition request. In subsequent years, Ottawa changed its approach and put in place various safeguards to protect Canada against Chinese spying, economic encroachment, and research theft.

Awareness of Beijing’s meddling in Canada’s democracy also increased with the holding of a public inquiry into foreign interference following extensive media reports about China’s interference efforts.

In this global context, Carney may not be planning to go as far as Trudeau had planned to with China, such as crafting a free trade deal or signing an extradition treaty. He is, however, laying the groundwork for an expanded relationship apart from trade with a secret agreement on law enforcement cooperation between the two countries.

Amid the push for closer ties, the federal government has stopped using language it had adopted in recent years under Trudeau to describe China, such as calling it a “disruptive” power. Carney has also been careful in his public statements on human rights, such as avoiding saying that forced labour is practised in China.

Trudeau’s public comments on China before taking office were positive, such as declaring a “level of admiration” for its “basic dictatorship” in 2013, but his tone changed following the Meng affair. In 2020 he accused China of “coercive diplomacy” and shelved the idea of pursuing free trade.

Meanwhile, Carney’s initial comments on the issue of China sent mixed signals as to how he would deal with the regime.

During last spring’s election campaign, Carney said that China represented Canada’s biggest security threat. Around the same time, however, he kept on the ballot a Liberal candidate who suggested his Conservative rival be taken to the Chinese consulate to collect the bounty placed on his head by Hong Kong authorities.

Shortly after the election, Carney described U.S. President Donald Trump as a “transformational” president for the way he had identified the risks stemming from China’s geopolitical competition.

Increasing Engagement

While noting security threats and geopolitical risks from the Chinese regime, Carney’s public criticism has been more directed at Trump’s America. The prime minister’s January speech in Davos, Switzerland, was widely seen as a swipe against Trump’s policies, while it also touted Canada’s response, which includes establishing a new strategic partnership with China.

Carney made the speech a few days after visiting Beijing and meeting with Chinese leaders. During a meeting with the Chinese premier, he said the progress made in the relationship “sets us up well for the new world order.”

The visit was the culmination of several ministerial meetings with Chinese officials in previous months.

The ramp-up was notable, similar to when the Trudeau Liberals took power in late 2015. That year, no ministers travelled to China. In 2016, the first full year of Trudeau being in power, there were 13 ministerial visits to China, including one by Trudeau himself.

Trudeau visited again in 2017, and over the span of that year and the following one, a total of 21 visits were made by Canadian ministers.

The increased engagement from the Trudeau Liberals ground to a halt after Canada executed a U.S. extradition warrant in late 2018 against Huawei founder’s daughter Meng Wanzhou. In apparent retaliation, Beijing arbitrarily detained Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor for more than 1,000 days.

Very few Canadian ministers visited China in the following years, apart from Mary Ng in 2019, Steven Guilbeault in 2023, and Mélanie Joly in 2024.

The pace has increased under Carney, with several ministerial visits starting in late 2025. The most recent one was Minister Champagne’s last week.

Champagne led a trade delegation with top Canadian officials and businesspeople in banking, such as Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

Boosting Trade

Ottawa is hoping to boost trade with Beijing by first establishing stronger ties in the financial sector. A similar objective around financial services had been stated following Trudeau’s 2016 visit.

The Carney government set the objective to increase merchandise trade with China by 50 percent by 2030. Two-way merchandise trade between Canada and China stood at $8.9 billion in the month of February, according to Statistics Canada. By comparison, two-way trade with the United States was $86 billion during the same month, and $10.9 billion with the European Union.

Carney said following his Beijing visit that his government is not pursuing free trade with China. This came after Trump said he would slap 100 percent tariffs on Canada if it makes an unspecified deal with China.

Trudeau had pushed for a free trade deal with China, with the two sides agreeing to launch exploratory talks in 2016 during a visit to Canada by then-Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. However, the talks didn’t make much progress, with the Chinese side criticizing Canada for seeking to include progressive issues such as gender and the environment in the deal.

Under the terms of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA and came into force in 2020, parties cannot enter free trade agreements with non-market economies without prior notification of other signatories. A review of the USMCA is set for July.

Carney has acknowledged that the USCMA prevents Ottawa from engaging in a free-trade deal with China, and has said his government follows the rules.

In any case, any kind of trade deal with China would likely not shield Canada from economic actions Beijing can take to punish or compel trading partners.

In 2018, a few months after Canada executed the U.S. warrant for Meng, China blocked the import of canola seeds from two major Canadian producers, alleging the detection of pests. The ban was lifted in 2022. China also briefly blocked shipments of Canadian beef and pork in 2019.

Canada’s trade deficit with China has steadily increased, going from around $20 billion in the early 2000s to $57 billion in 2024.

Lowering Tariffs

China dropped or reduced some of its tariffs on Canada in recent weeks, following Carney’s visit to Beijing and a deal made to allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the country at the “most-favoured nation” rate of 6.1 percent. Vehicles outside the quota face a 100 percent tariff since Ottawa applied the surtax in October 2024, a move which mirrored Washington’s.

The debate around the arrival of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) initially centred on their impacts on Canadian auto jobs and the security risks posed by the sensor-laden cars. Another aspect, tied to human rights, came into focus in late March during a House of Commons committee meeting on federal EV policies.

Liberal MP Michael Ma appeared to dismiss the existence of forced labour in China, as an expert witness discussed the presence of forced labour in EV parts made in China.

The practice of forced labour in China is recognized by the Canadian government, with Global Affairs Canada saying that “evidence suggests that forced labour of Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities is taking place not only in Xinjiang, but across China.”

Opposition MPs, China experts, and human rights advocates have raised other concerns about the new strategic partnership pursued by Ottawa.

Similar to the early Trudeau years, the Canadian government is pursuing increased cooperation with Chinese law enforcement.

In 2016, Ottawa and Beijing agreed to start discussions on an extradition treaty. At the time, the Chinese regime’s Operation Fox Hunt was in full swing—which involves apprehending fugitives abroad as part of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign. Such campaigns in China are highly political, and human rights advocates have noted China has no due process and uses torture and the death penalty.

The deal was never finalized, but the extent of the new law-enforcement cooperation between Ottawa and Beijing has not been divulged. Conservative MPs have unsuccessfully pressed for the release of the memorandum of understanding between the RCMP and the Chinese Ministry of Public Security.

The joint statement issued by Carney and Xi after their meeting states the two sides “committed to strengthening law enforcement cooperation to combat corruption and transnational crimes, including telecommunication and cyber fraud and illegal synthetic drugs in accordance with their respective laws.”

As for the trajectory of the Carney government’s dealings with China, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said last year that they’re working toward a “restart,” while Carney said in Beijing this year that the relationship with China is entering “a new era.”