Queensland LNP Bucks National Trend, Holds Lead Over One Nation

The Liberal National Party (LNP) government in Queensland—the birthplace of One Nation—has managed to stave off the surge of One Nation across the country, while extending its lead over the Labor opposition.

The latest DemosAU/PremierNational Poll, taken between May 27 and June 3 polled 1,033 locals and found the LNP steady at 34 percent, Labor down 3 points to 25 percent, and One Nation up 3 to 24 percent.

Voters remain happier with the premier than the opposition leader, with 47 percent preferring Crisafulli to 30 percent for Miles.

And 43 percent of Queenslanders feel their state is headed in the right direction, compared to 37 percent.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the poll showed the Crisafulli LNP government has firmly established its position.

“They’ve been able to stem the loss of support to One Nation and probably rely on their preferences to increase their two-party preferred position,” he said in a statement.

In Queensland, support for both the Greens and “others” remained unchanged, at 10 and 7 percent respectively.

The latest result means the LNP leads Labor 58 to 42 on a two-party preferred basis, representing a 4.2 percent shift in favour of the government since the 2024 state election.

Older Voters the Key to LNP Support

“This is largely down to holding their election-winning support among over 55s,” Hasanakos explained.

Currently, the state LNP leads One Nation 49 to 20 among those aged over 55. That’s very different to the federal picture, where One Nation leads with this cohort.

“Labor is losing some of the anti-government protest vote to One Nation, especially among under-55s. This weakens [its] electoral position, assuming a strong preference flow from One Nation to the LNP,” he said.

But despite One Nation being only 1 point behind Labor on the primary vote, based on this poll it may struggle to become the formal opposition at the next election.

“While Labor is struggling in the poll, its higher base of support in south-east Queensland and the assistance of Greens’ preferences would still see it comfortably returned as the official opposition if an election were held today,” Hasanakos asserted.

Nelson Savanh, Queensland executive director of PremierNational, credited Crisafulli’s “calm and centre-of-the-road” strategy that has allowed him to buck the national trend.

“Ahead of the budget, Queenslanders will be looking to the government to tackle the cost of living, while the public continues to be frustrated with the pace of addressing crime issues,” he said.

“An added bonus for the government, as shovels hit the ground on the Brisbane Stadium, is that Queenslanders have given the LNP a pass mark for getting on with delivering the 2032 Games.”

Nationally, the conservative-leaning One Nation has vastly eroded support from the Liberal-National Coalition with the Labor government now fighting to maintains its position.

In the latest national Newspoll, One Nation rose 4 points to 31 percent, while Labor lost 1 point to 30 percent, and the Coalition fell 2 points to 18 percent.