Electricity Bills May Jolt Midterms

If all politics is local—as former House Speaker Tip O’Neill said—tying politicians’ fortunes to constituents’ pocketbooks, then a voter’s electricity bill is about as local as an issue can get, landing on kitchen tables every month.

With electricity costs spiking for many of the nation’s 133 million households, this local issue could determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress or Democrats seize one or both chambers in November’s midterm elections.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, average residential electricity rates increased nationwide by nearly 13 percent from April 2020 to April 2025. Since President Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025, they’ve increased by 6 percent.

Electricity prices are expected to increase, on average, by 6 percent in 2026, the administration projects, and as much as 40 percent by 2030, warns economic development finance firm ICF.

The reason is simple: supply and demand. The North American Electric Reliability Corp. projected in its 2026 long-term reliability assessment report that electricity demand will increase in the coming decade by 70 percent more than what was estimated in 2024. Many analyses find that overall demand will increase 25 percent by 2030.

The surge is driven by the development of power-hungry data centers, artificial intelligence computing, advanced manufacturing, and “the electrification of everything,” with the average home featuring up to 21 digital devices—all eating electricity all the time.

The solution is also simple: The nation’s 2,896 utility companies must increase the electricity their power plants produce with the most abundant, least expensive energy sources. Meanwhile, the nation’s seven major grid operators must add up to 7,500 miles a year to their 240,000-mile network of high-voltage transmission lines while also upgrading up to 100,000 miles of those live wires, through 2035.

But determining which solutions work best and what long-term investments to make is a complex $1 trillion challenge mired in partisan politics and buried in century-old federal, state, and local regulations.

Not only are utilities and regional transmission operators amping up from a standing start after nearly two decades of inertia, but many are scrambling to keep pace with swelling demand while also building out generation and transmission capacities to meet projected need.

The cost of these capital improvements is showing up in customers’ bills, leading to heightened scrutiny of investment decisions and generation choices, as well as spurring debate about how individual communities want to develop, all while the Trump administration is pushing to expand rapidly to win the “AI arms race” with China.

The focus and investment are long overdue, said Robert Bryce, a film producer and author of a widely read Substack on the grid and seven books on energy policies, including “A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations.”

“Given what we’ve seen in recent months, where both Republicans and Democrats are focusing on power prices, it’s clear that the days of ignoring the electric grid—and its pivotal role in our society—are over,” he told The Epoch Times. “That’s a good thing.”

Rising electricity, health care, gasoline, and grocery prices are components of the 2026 midterms’ top issue—affordability, as voters question why they’re paying so much for basic needs.

Electricity bills were among the primary concerns cited by 84 percent of 2,710 nationwide respondents in a January Climate Power survey. Eight of every 10 in a Kaiser Family Foundation poll of 1,426 voters that same month said “affordability” was their top issue, with 22 percent placing electricity just below gasoline and grocery prices. In a March Environmental Defense Fund poll of 1,000 Florida voters, 57 percent said electric bills are stressing household budgets.

Data center development is the lightning rod of this angst. In a January Pew Research Center poll of 8,512 adults, nearly 40 percent blamed data centers for higher utility bills. A February Politico national survey of 2,000 voters found nearly half see energy costs spurred by data centers as a top issue in congressional, state, and local elections.

How campaigns tackle “electricity inflation” will be pivotal in many of November’s 33 U.S. Senate elections, especially in Maine, Michigan, and Ohio races rated as “toss-ups” by Cook Political Reports. Sixteen House campaigns, including 13 seats held by GOP incumbents, are classified as “toss-ups.”

Assuaging voter anger over rising electricity bills will be among the defining factors in many of these elections and will determine whether Republicans hold on to their 53–47 Senate majority and 217–212 House advantage.

“I have been writing about politics and energy for three decades,” Bryce said. “I cannot remember another time when so many politicians, from all parts of the political spectrum, are talking about electricity.”

Aron Solomon, chief strategy officer for campaign consultancy Amplify Inc., told The Epoch Times: “This is, honestly, shaping up to be one of the most interesting political issues of the 2026 cycle because electricity bills hit people in a very direct, and profoundly emotional way.

“Voters may not follow every inflation report or Fed decision, but they for sure notice when their monthly power bill suddenly jumps.”

Electricity bills are ripe targets for Democrats looking to unseat Republicans, who voters will perceive as responsible—fairly or not—for rising rates, according to University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs professor Charles Bullock III.

“When we get beyond the primaries and we move into the fall—and I could see this happening for a variety of offices—the Democrat accusing the Republican of not having done something to try to constrain energy costs” will be a standard pitch, he told The Epoch Times.

This tactic already proved itself successful in November 2025 with Democrats citing Republican policies for skyrocketing electricity bills in winning gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, and in two Democrats unseating GOP incumbents in Georgia Public Service Commission races.

The question of who’s to blame for the situation has largely broken down along party lines: Republicans have blamed President Joe Biden, while Democrats say it’s due to Trump’s policies.

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—John Haughey

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