From AI to Oil: US Import, Export Prices Rise Sharply in September

U.S. import and export prices jumped far above economists’ expectations in September, underscoring mounting inflation pressures.

Prices for American exports surged 2.2 percent, from an upwardly revised 1.2 percent in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This blew past the consensus forecast of 1 percent and represented the biggest monthly increase since April.

Last month’s spike was broad-based, with prices for both agricultural and nonagricultural products climbing 2.6 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.

On the agricultural front, higher costs for corn, soybeans, and wheat contributed to the reading.

The bureau also pointed to higher import prices for industrial supplies and materials.

Showcasing the ongoing artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout, capital goods import prices are up more than 8 percent from a year ago, and import prices for nonelectrical machinery goods jumped 10.4 percent.

In the 12 months ending in September, export prices advanced to almost 12 percent, the highest in more than four years.

Import prices rose by a four-month high of 1.1 percent in September, up from a downwardly adjusted 0.7 percent the previous month. This was also above the market estimate of 0.8 percent.

Energy accounted for a sizable share of the increase, with imported fuel prices advancing nearly 5 percent. Import prices for petroleum, petroleum products, and natural gas also rose.

Stripping out energy-related items, import prices surged 0.7 percent and have not fallen since August 2025, the bureau noted.

Compared with the same period a year ago, import prices are up more than 8 percent.

All major U.S. trading partners saw their export costs rise, led by Canada (1.3 percent), Japan (1.1 percent), China (0.7 percent), and Mexico (0.6 percent). Imports from the European Union ticked up just 0.3 percent.

The latest trade prices reflect the impact of the war in Iran on global energy markets and worldwide supply chains.

The ongoing conflict, now approaching nine months, has kept crude oil prices at or above $100 per barrel. This is filtering through gasoline and diesel prices, which are firmly above $4 and $6 per gallon, respectively.

‘Work to Do’

Looking ahead, the growing fear is that elevated energy costs will spread through the broader economy, creating second- or third-order inflation effects.

This week’s inflation and producer price index data suggested that underlying pressures could be building.

September’s headline consumer inflation climbed to a higher-than-expected annualized rate of 3.7 percent. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, the 12-month core inflation rate rose to 2.6 percent, up from 2.4 percent in August.

Wholesale inflation also surged higher than expected. Last month’s Producer Price Index—a measure of pipeline inflation—rose by 1.3 percent. Core PPI also jumped 0.7 percent.

Taken together, these numbers suggest the Federal Reserve has more “work to do,” says Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank.

“Neither the CPI nor PPI show inflation moving back towards the Fed’s target,” Adams said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

The Fed has missed its 2 percent inflation target for 67 consecutive months. But Chairman Kevin Warsh said the central bank will restore the price-stability side of its dual mandate.

“At the Federal Reserve, we made very clear that we would deliver price stability, and we removed a dose of accommodation about a month ago,” Warsh said during an International Monetary Fund event in Thailand on Oct. 16.

But he stopped short of predicting what the Fed will do later this month. “I don’t prejudge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year,” Warsh said.