That’s expected for the sixth year of a president’s tenure, called the “six-year itch,” a time when the president’s party has historically lost seats in the House. With the House already closely divided, observers expect Democrats to reclaim the lower chamber this year. However, Democrats’ new margins in the House could also be slim, as a flurry of mid-decade redistricting has panned out with a slight edge for Republicans.
The Senate is seen as a more hotly contested battleground. Currently, Republicans hold 53 seats to Democrats’ 47. Just four pick-ups for Democrats—who are leading or holding their own in red states like Iowa and Ohio—would flip the balance of the upper chamber.
It comes also as several progressive and outsider Democrats—some of whom have open ties to the Democratic Socialists of America or democratic socialist ideas—have made headlines in races across the nation. Republicans have argued that Democrats are shifting too far left for the average American.
According to polling by Pew Research, Americans’ top concern at present is the economy, and by a wide margin. That poll found that economic issues were the driving political force this cycle for 29 percent of Americans. Data centers are also a top priority for voters as the primary season comes to a close.
Here are the top elections and candidates to watch this cycle.
Senate
Georgia
In Georgia, Republicans are again seeking to flip one of the state’s two Senate seats, which have been held by Democrats since 2020.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), elected to his first six-year term in a January 2021 runoff, is up for reelection. Republicans selected Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) to take him on.
Polls taken in the state have shown that Ossoff is favored to hold the seat, leading Collins in almost every poll so far.
In 2024, President Donald Trump won Georgia by around 2.2 percentage points— Republicans’ lowest margins of victory in the Peach State since 1996.
Maine
In Maine, incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-Me.) will take on former state Senate President Troy Jackson for one of the year’s top Senate fights.
Collins, a long-serving political juggernaut in the state, ran unopposed for her party’s nomination.
Maine Democrats selected Jackson on July 25 as their party’s nominee to challenge Collins, taking over after the previous nominee, Graham Platner dropped out of the race.
Platner, a progressive, was one of the first candidates to capture the populist mood of the national Democratic base, building a campaign that championed pro-working class policies. But after accusations of sexual and other misconduct emerged, which he denied, Platner ultimately departed the race.
However, Collins still faces a difficult fight to hold the seat, with polls showing she’s running behind either Democrat in most polls conducted since March.
Michigan
Michigan’s Senate race features a showdown between an establishment Republican and a progressive outsider after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters declined to run for reelection.
Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, won his primary over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) by a single point. He faced more than $60 million in outside spending in support of Stevens.
El-Sayed will take on former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in the race.
Currently, he leads in the polls by around 4 percent.
Analysts say El-Sayed’s campaign reflects the outsider approach and populist energy seen among democratic socialist-aligned candidates.
Between 2017 and 2020, El-Sayed spoke at several events hosted by the Democratic Socialists of America.
But today, El-Sayed says he’s distanced himself from the group—and the democratic socialist label—describing himself as a capitalist.
Rogers ran unopposed during his primary with Trump’s endorsement.
Alaska
While Alaska is Republican-leaning, the Senate race between incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is proving competitive.
Sullivan has served in the Senate since 2015, while Peltola served in the U.S. House of Representatives between September 2022 and January 2025.
Because Peltola has shown viability in statewide elections in the single-district state, the Last Frontier is a top target for Democrats this year.
The ranked-choice race is complicated by the presence of a candidate on the ballot who shares a name with incumbent senator Dan Sullivan. The challenger, also named Dan Sullivan and also Republican, has insisted he’s serious about running, despite allegations that he’s just trying to divert votes away from the senator.
In the most recent poll taken of the race, Sullivan leads with 47 percent to Peltola’s 46 percent. However, some other polls show Peltola in the lead.
Iowa
Iowa is also home to a competitive Senate race this year, this time between GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, after Sen. Joni Ernst declined to run for a third term.
Like others, the state had been seen as reliably Republican over the past several cycles, since President Donald Trump first won the state back in 2016 with a nearly 10-point victory.
However, it was long known as a quintessential swing state.
As recently as 2012, the state drew intense national attention as a battleground. Now, some polls are showing that Iowa is in for a tighter Senate race this year, a pattern also being seen in neighboring Ohio.
Hinson has led in five polls conducted of the race since April, while Turek has led in four.
Cook Political Report recently moved the race from lean Republican to a toss up, reflecting the closely split nature of the race.
Ohio
Ohio is another key Senate battleground this year, with former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown set for a November fight against incumbent GOP Sen. Jon Husted.
Brown was unseated just two years ago in the 2024 election, losing to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) by around 3.6 percent—far outrunning Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s approximately 11 point victory that year.
Without the benefit of the “Trump effect,” describing Trump’s impact on close down-ballot races during presidential election years, Husted faces a race against a politically powerful opponent with deep name recognition in the state.
Husted was appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine to fill the seat held by Vance. The winner will serve out the final two years of Vance’s term.
Texas
In Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton is set for a heated November matchup against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in one of the cycle’s most-watched races.
Paxton won a contentious primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) with the assistance of a strong endorsement from Trump.
The expensive and personal primary race centered heavily on Paxton’s past controversies, including his impeachment for alleged bribery, whistleblower retaliation, and abuse of office.
In 2023, Paxton was impeached by the Texas House on 20 articles in a 121–23 vote and subsequently acquitted on all counts.
Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, has built a campaign based around his Christian values as a seminarian and on his track record as a state legislator.
Talarico has led in 15 out of the 16 polls of the race conducted since July, with Paxton leading in a poll conducted by Emerson College.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is set to take on former Gov. Roy Cooper in one of the 2026 cycle’s most crucial matchups.
The two are fighting to replace outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.)—an administration critic who announced last year that he wouldn’t seek reelection—after winning their nominations in March.
Trump has loomed over the election in the state.
Whatley, appointed to lead the Republican National Committee on Trump’s recommendation, has emphasized his loyalty, while Cooper has accused Whatley of being “anointed” by Trump.
While Republicans have held an advantage in the battleground state for nearly two decades, polls have shown that Cooper favored this cycle, leading in every poll of the race conducted since July 2025. In a sign that Republicans see the race as a potential lost cause, the Senate Leadership Fund has withdrawn funding from North Carolina, instead directing it to an unexpectedly close Senate race in Kansas. [delete]
Kansas
In Kansas, polls show Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) locked in a dead heat with pastor Adam Hamilton.
Hamilton is a United Methodist megachurch pastor and author, co-founding the Kansas-based Church of the Resurrection. Marshall is a freshman senator and an obstetrician-gynecologist, first elected in 2020 after beating out a crowded primary field.
This year, Marshall has been the subject of controversy in the state after The New York Times reported that he had sued hundreds of his former patients, leading to 81 arrests due to missed court dates.
While Marshall led in the first poll taken of the race released on Sept. 11, every poll since has shown him either tied with or running behind Hamilton.
In the 2020 election, which he won by around 12 percent, there were some warning signs: Shawnee County and Riley County backed the Democrat for the first time since the 1970s, while Johnson County voted Democratic for the first time in the state’s history. President Joe Biden flipped the same counties in that election.
The race was originally rated lean Republican by Cook Political Report, which now rates it to be a toss-up.
Nebraska
In Nebraska, independent candidate Dan Osborn—who made national news following his close fight against Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) in 2024—is making another bid for the office.
In that race, Osborn lost to Fischer by around 7 points after Democrats declined to make a nomination in the race. This year, Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank has dropped out of the race to make way for Osborn, similar to the situation seen in 2024.
This year, he’s running against the incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), and polls have shown a tight race. In surveys taken in September and October, Ricketts led by 4 and 5 points, respectively. Osborn led by around the same margin in polls taken in May and September.
Republicans maintain a structural advantage in the state. Although 53 percent of registered Nebraska voters live in rural areas, the urban and suburban population in Nebraska is reliably Republican—but has potential to swing in line with an anti-Republican national environment.
Omaha, Nebraska, is a crucial decision-maker in the race, as its population has trended away from Republicans in recent cycles, voting for Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
House
Texas 34th Congressional District
In Texas’ 34th Congressional District, representing one of the Lone Star State’s most evenly-split seats, incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) is seeking to hold off a challenge from Republicans, who see the House district as a potential pickup opportunity.
The seat was among those redrawn by the state legislature last year at the request of the White House.
In the primary, Trump-endorsed candidate Eric Flores, a former federal prosecutor, defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas) for the Republican nod.
In 2022, Mayra Flores made headlines with a special election win in District 34 before its map was redrawn. But after she lost to Gonzalez in 2022 and again in 2024, the party is making a fresh bid with Eric Flores.
The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up.
North Carolina 1st Congressional District
In North Carolina’s First Congressional District, Republicans selected retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout as their nominee on March 3, setting up a November rematch against incumbent Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.).
The district was altered to favor Republicans, although analysts still consider the seat competitive.
Davis won a second term in 2024 by less than 2 percent, becoming one of 13 House Democrats to win elections in districts won by Trump. He’s been critical of the redrawing of his district, which will make reelection a tougher challenge this cycle.
Ohio House Races
Ohio will also host a handful of key House races that will affect control of Congress next year.
In the 7th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Max Miller faces a tough path to reelection amid abuse allegations by his ex-wife Emily Moreno, which Miller has denied.
Miller’s Democratic opponent, union ironworker and Brook Park city councilman Brian Poindexter, has been endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Over in the 9th Congressional District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur hopes to hold onto her seat in a rematch from 2024 with former state Rep. Derek Merrin.
Kaptur has been in Congress since 1983, while Merrin is a former member of the Ohio House of Representatives and has touted his record in the state legislature.
Nebraska 2nd Congressional District
Democrat Denise Powell will face Republican nominee Brinker Harding in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District as both parties continue to fight for the seat that’s come to be known as Nebraska’s “Blue Dot.”
Since 2008, the Omaha-based, urban district has swung between the two parties, but has increasingly favored Democrats in recent cycles.
The seat is currently represented by Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who had managed to keep the trust of the district—which backed Harris in 2024—even as it has otherwise swung toward Democrats.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning toward Democrats. Powell would be Nebraska’s only Democrat in Congress if she wins.
Pennsylvania House Races
Several critical races are being held in Pennsylvania, one of the most narrowly-split national battlegrounds.
This year, Pennsylvania voters—who backed Trump in 2024—are heavily driven by economic concerns.
According to one recent poll by Franklin & Marshall College, only 14 percent of voters in the state say they’re better off financially than they were a year ago. Nearly half—44 percent—say they’re worse off.
This year, the most closely-contested races in the state have Republicans playing defense.
Pennsylvania’s Seventh Congressional District is represented by freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.), who was first elected to Congress in 2024.
The district is a top target for Democrats. Firefighter union leader Bob Brooks, running with the endorsement of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, is their nominee.
Pennsylvania’s Eighth Congressional District is represented by freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), who was first elected to Congress in 2024.
Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti will take him on in the swing district.
Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District is represented by Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who has been in Congress for nearly 14 years.
Former news anchor Janelle Stelson, a Democrat, is running again for the seat after a 2024 loss.
Iowa 1st Congressional District
Several key House races will also be held in Iowa.
In the 1st Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is defending her seat against former Democratic state Rep. Christina Bohannan.
The seat featured one of the closest House race of 2024, with Miller-Meeks ultimately defeating the Democrat by just 799 votes despite Trump’s 13-point win in the statewide presidential contest.
Iowa 3rd Congressional District
In the 3rd Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Zach Nunn looks to be reelected to a third term.
He’s facing Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott.
Nunn led by 6 points in the only independent public poll of the race so far, conducted in March.
Virginia 2nd Congressional District
Incumbent Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans is seeking a third term, but faces a tougher fight this year with former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, who Kiggans defeated in 2022.
The Virginia Beach-based district is known for a strong military and veteran presence and a moderate approach to politics.
In 2024, Kiggans won reelection by 3.8 percentage points, facing a lesser known challenger at the time.
Washington 3rd Congressional District
Encompassing the southernmost portion of Western Washington state, the Third Congressional District is represented by Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.).
Washington state Senate GOP leader John Braun is aiming to unseat the moderate Democrat this year.
The seat has historically favored Republicans, although Gluesenkamp Perez’s centrist brand has been popular in the region.
Trump won the district by 3 percentage points in 2024.
Wisconsin 3rd Congressional District
Encompassing western and southwestern Wisconsin, this district has been represented by Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) since 2023.
Democrats selected small business owner and waitress Rebecca Cooke as their nominee.
Trump won the district by 8 percentage points in 2024, but the Cook Political Report rates the match a pure toss-up.
California House Races
California will also host several key House races this year.
California’s 13th Congressional District is represented by freshman Rep. Adam Gray (D-Calif.), who was first elected to the seat in 2024.
He’s facing Kevin Lincoln II, the former mayor of Stockton, California.
California’s 22nd Congressional District is represented by Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), who has been in Congress for a decade.
Randy Villegas, a teacher and business owner, is Democrats’ pick.
Finally, retiring Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-Calif.) 48th Congressional District seat is a critical target for Democrats.
The district was redrawn as part of California’s new congressional map that came about in response to redistricting in Texas.
San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, a Democrat, is facing San Diego County Board of Supervisors member Jim Desmond, a Republican, in the seat rated “Lean Democrat” by Cook Political Report.
South Carolina 1st Congressional District
In South Carolina’s only swing district, Democrats are hoping for a repeat of 2018, when former Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-S.C.) pulled off an upset win in the Republican-leaning, Charleston-based district.
This year, incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) won’t be on the ballot after she made an unsuccessful bid for South Carolina governor.
Instead, Democrat Nancy Lacore, a retired Navy vice admiral, will take on Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt. Both candidates won their nominations in runoff primary elections.
Maine 2nd Congressional District
In Maine’s Republican-leaning second congressional district, the race to replace outgoing Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) is a top priority for both parties.
Maine state auditor Matthew Dunlap will face former Gov. Paul LePage, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Republicans hope LePage will be able to flip the seat, which houses a district that voted for Trump in 2024.
New York House Races
Key House races are also set to be held in New York.
In the Long Island-based 3rd Congressional District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) faces former state Assemblyman Mike LiPetri Jr., a Republican.
Suozzi has decried Trump tariffs and cuts to Medicaid.
In the 4th Congressional District, also located on Long Island, incumbent Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen looks to be reelected to a second term as she faces Republican Jeanine Driscoll.
In the 17th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley, a special ops combat veteran.
The race for Lawler’s seat is a top priority for Democrats.
In the 19th Congressional District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Josh Riley is running for a second term, while Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker looks to unseat him.
New Jersey 7th Congressional District
In the 7th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. is seeking a third term, while Democrat Rebecca Bennett looks to unseat him.
Kean, who has represented the district since 2023, came under fire for his absence from Congress between March and June. Upon his return, he said he was dealing with a diagnosis of depression for which he was hospitalized. He has missed more than 100 House votes.
Arizona House Races
Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) is retiring after serving in Congress since 2011, leaving his highly competitive 1st Congressional District seat open.
Democrats ultimately nominated former Arizona House of Representatives Rep. Amish Shah, while Republicans nominated former NFL kicker and analyst Jay Feely.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, meanwhile, is represented by Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), who has been in Congress since 2023.
Democrats nominated JoAnna Mendoza, a Marine veteran whose post-military career has centered around providing assistance and outreach services to veterans.
Florida 25th Congressional District
Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) won renomination to his 25th Congressional District U.S. House seat on Aug. 18, defeating Oliver Larkin, a union organizer endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America.
Moskowitz currently represents the 23rd District. He ran in the 25th after Florida’s Republican-led legislature redrew the state’s congressional map this year at the call of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer won the Republican nomination.
The Cook Political Report rates the match a toss-up.
Michigan 7th Congressional District
Incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Barrett faces progressive activist and Democrat William Lawrence.
Barrett was first elected in 2024.
He has broken with his party over the war in Iran as he has joined a few other Republicans along with Democrats in favor of war powers resolutions related to the conflict.
Gubernatorial
Georgia
Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms looks to flip this seat to the Democrats, while billionaire Republican Rick Jackson seeks to keep it in Republican hands.
Bottoms’ platform consists of lowering healthcare costs and building more housing.
Jackson is running on a promise to freeze property taxes and to reduce and then eliminate the state income tax.
The winner will succeed Gov. Brian Kemp, who was ineligible to run for reelection.
Iowa
Republicans are looking to hold this seat with farmer and businessman Zach Lahn, while Democrats look to win it back for the first time since 2011.
Lahn is a proponent of the Make America Healthy Again movement, running on a promise to fight what he said is a “cancer crisis” in Iowa.
The Democratic nominee, Rob Sand, is the state auditor.
Sand has led in every poll since June.
The winner will succeed Gov. Kim Reynolds, who declined to run for a third term.
Nevada
Gov. Joe Lombardo, a Republican, is up for reelection.
He has touted his record as governor during the campaign, referencing his work to expand state savings, cut regulation, and boost employment.
Lombardo’s Democratic opponent is Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford. He has promised affordable housing and addressing predatory practices by healthcare agents.
Lombardo, a former sheriff, was first elected in 2022.
Ohio
Just as Ohio has drawn national attention to its House and Senate races, observers are also paying attention to its gubernatorial race this year.
Republican entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is running against Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director.
Earlier this year, the Cook Political Report shifted the race’s rating to toss up, citing Acton’s polling leads and ties over the race despite Ramaswamy’s financial edge.
Arizona
In Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs faces reelection, fielding a challenge from Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.).
National issues—affordability, the impacts of Republican party-line cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, and data centers—are factors in the race.
Meanwhile, local issues related to water access for Phoenix—a rapidly growing metropolis situated in the desert—have also been key factors in the race.
Hobbs has led Biggs by nearly a double-digit margin in every poll of the race conducted in 2026.
Michigan
Republicans have been looking to take back the Michigan gubernatorial mansion since they lost the seat in 2019.
The Republican nominee, Rep. John James (R-Mich.), has campaigned on implementing a parental bill of rights and enabling school choice.
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the Democrat facing James, running on a promise to increase the affordability of housing and other goods.
The winner will succeed Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is term-limited.
Kansas
Republican Ty Masterson will face Democrat Cindy Holscher in the closely-watched fight for the governor’s mansion of Kansas.
Masterson, who was endorsed by Trump, won the crowded Republican primary on Aug. 4 in a landslide. Holscher, a state senator, came out on top in the Democratic race.
Masterson, who has been the president of the Kansas Senate since 2021, says he wants to cut taxes, bring jobs to Kansas, and raise pay for teachers, while Holscher is running on a platform to lower the cost of living.
Though Kansas is known as a red state at the federal level, contests have been closer on the state level. The mansion is currently occupied by Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat.
Jacki Thrapp, Michael Clements, and Chase Smith contributed to this report.
Friends Read Free
Copy
Facebook
Tweet
