State of the Fight for the US Senate as Voters Lock in Key Nominees

As the U.S. primary season continues full steam ahead, some of the most critical 2026 Senate matchups have already been set. 

From the Southeast to New England and the Rust Belt, races are taking form that will determine the makeup of the Senate in 2027 and beyond. 

Despite a map that had been expected to be unfavorable for Democrats—going through states like Texas, North Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska, among others—polling has shown a surge for the party in recent months, including in states that had previously been seen as relatively safe Republican holds.

Here’s the state of some of the cycle’s most important Senate races. 

Georgia 

In Georgia, Republicans are again seeking to flip one of the state’s two Democratic seats, which have remained firmly under Democratic control since 2020. 

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), elected to his first six-year term in 2020, is up for reelection. 

Republicans selected Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) to take on Ossoff.

Polls taken in the state so far have shown that Ossoff is favored to hold the seat, leading Collins in every poll taken so far, with the exception of a September 2025 poll by Quantus Insights, which found that Ossoff and Collins were tied in the race.

In 2024, President Donald Trump won Georgia by around 2.2 percent—one of the Republicans’ lowest margins of victory in the Peach State in decades. 

That victory came amid high rural turnout, alongside strong margins for the president in the critical Atlanta-area suburbs, which were ultimately able to offset Democrats’ baked-in advantage with Atlanta metropolitan voters. 

However, the state has been trending blue for years, and the 2026 contest represents a crucial test of Republicans’ continued viability in the state’s Senate elections. 

North Carolina 

In North Carolina, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is set to take on former Gov. Roy Cooper in one of the 2026 cycle’s most crucial matchups. 

The two are vying to replace outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.)—an outspoken critic of the Trump administration who announced last year that he wouldn’t seek reelection—after locking down their parties’ nominations on March 3. 

While Republicans have held an advantage in the battleground state for nearly two decades—last sending a Democrat to the Senate amid the 2008 blue wave that coincided with President Barack Obama’s election—polls have shown that Cooper is in a favorable position. 

Cooper, a popular former governor, has led Whatley by at least seven points in every poll taken in the state since February. 

Two polls taken in March—including a poll by Catawba College and a poll by Nexus/Strategic Partners Solutions—found Cooper leading by more than 12 percent. 

While polling paints a rough picture for Republicans, the state remains a critical target for both parties in the 2026 cycle. 

Maine 

In Maine, voters selected oysterman and military veteran Graham Platner—a dark horse candidate whose candidacy forced Gov. Janet Mills to suspend her Senate primary campaign—for the Democratic nomination. 

It sets him up to take on incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a long-serving political juggernaut in the state who ran unopposed for her party’s nomination on Tuesday, locking in the nominees for one of the most critical Senate elections of the 2026 cycle.

In what’s been characterized by observers as the political fight of Collins’s life, surveys have painted a tough picture for the Maine Republican: Collins has fallen behind Platner in most polls conducted since March.

Platner has campaigned as a progressive candidate, winning the endorsement of key figures such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). 

His campaign has faced some controversies, many of them sourced in reporting by The New York Times, which include various claims made by Lyndsey Fifield, a Republican political strategist who previously dated Platner.

The Wall Street Journal also reported on sexually explicit text messages Platner allegedly exchanged with other women during his marriage. His wife condemned the reporting about her marriage as “shameful.”

Michigan

In one of the nation’s most crucial swing states, Republicans are seeking to flip the seat being vacated this year by retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). 

The final shape of this race remains up in the air as Democrats won’t make their final picks until the state’s Aug. 4 primary. 

Republicans are expected to nominate former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) for the post. 

The most recent poll of the Democratic field, taken by Mitchell Research, shows that Abdul El-Sayed—an epidemiologist and former director of the Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services of Wayne County, Michigan—is leading Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) for the nomination, with 42 percent to Stevens’s 33 percent. 

Rogers has shown his strongest numbers in polling against El-Sayed. The most recent poll taken in June shows El-Sayed leading in a hypothetical matchup with Rogers by 1 point. 

Ohio

In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)—who had been unseated in the 2024 election by Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio)—is seeking to take on incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio). 

Despite the state’s sharp Republican turn over the past decade, going from a battleground state to one seen as reliably red, Brown has shown unusual electoral sway in the state.

In 2016, Trump won Ohio by 8.13 percent. Just two years later, Brown managed to hold onto his seat by a 6.82 percent margin amid the Democrat-friendly environment of the 2018 midterms—outrunning Trump’s 2016 totals by 14.95 percent.

Polls of the race between Husted and Brown taken since the beginning of 2026 paint a picture of a race whose outcome remains unclear: Both men have led in three polls each of the six total.

In the most recent poll, released by Fox News on June 3, Brown led Husted by 8 percent, with 53 percent of respondents saying they’d back Brown to 45 percent who said they supported Husted.

Iowa 

The Iowa Senate race was thrown wide open after Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) announced that she wouldn’t seek reelection. 

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, endorsed by Trump, will face off against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in the contest for the Senate seat.

Trump won in 2024 with 55.7 percent of the vote, and Cook Political Report ranks the seat as “leans Republican.” 

Democrats are hoping to flip the seat, which has been held by Republicans since 2008.

In the only general election poll taken in the state, Turek leads with 46 percent of the vote to Hinson’s 45 percent.

Nebraska 

In Nebraska, Independent candidate Dan Osborn—who made national news following his close fight against Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) in 2024—is making another bid for the office. 

In that race, Osborn lost to Fischer by around 7 points after Democrats declined to make a nomination in the race. 

While Democrats have made a nomination this year, selecting Cindy Burbank, Burbank has indicated that she will drop out if she sees no path to victory, making way for Osborn’s candidacy. Burbank explicitly ran to prevent another candidate who she accused of bad motives from taking the nomination. 

Republicans have nominated incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.).

In the only poll taken between Osborn and Ricketts, Osborn leads with 47 percent to Ricketts’s 42 percent.

Texas 

In the Lone Star State, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is set for a November matchup against state Sen. James Talarico. 

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) was defeated by the Trump-backed primary challenger in an expensive and personal race. 

Paxton’s victory sets him up for a November general election against Democratic nominee Talarico, whose relatively strong showing in polls against Paxton has drawn national attention to the race in the Republican stronghold. 

Across the polls of the matchup taken in 2026, there have been two ties, two polls showing Paxton leading, and four with Talarico ahead.

Alaska 

In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) is the Democrats’ presumptive choice to take on incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska).

The state uses an open primary voting system, meaning that the top two candidates will advance to the general election. 

Because Peltola has shown viability in statewide elections in the single-district state, the Last Frontier is a top target for Democrats this year.  

In the only poll taken of the race, Peltola leads with 46 percent to Sullivan’s 41 percent.