“With inflation still well above the Committee’s longer-run goal and the labor market remaining tight, most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy,” the meeting summary
"I'm expecting the market to remain in wait-and-see mode throughout the day because we have the Fed minutes tonight ... and U.S. inflation tomorrow," said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
Inflation data published by Statistics Data on Aug. 15 shows that mortgage interest cost rose 30.6 percent year-over-year in July. The agency says it’s the largest contributor to headline inflation.
Lower gasoline prices have largely driven the decline in inflation over the last year. Now, economists say underlying price pressures need to ease for inflation to fall further.
Inflation will be between 6-7%/yr thru 2023. How do I know? The Quantity Theory of Money. M2 growth fuels inflation, & has grown by 41% since Feb 2020.”
Headline inflation was 4.2 percent in the year to April, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics figures, but the Reserve Bank has forecast inflation to rise to 4.8 percent by the end of June.
Core CPI inflation came down slowly while core PCE inflation stayed flat over the recent four data releases, suggesting overall inflation might not easily move down quickly as overall inflation converges to the core one, probably what the Fed is suspecting
Also weighing on Wall Street Wednesday was the fact that inflation remains high, even if it is slowing. And underneath the surface, inflation also remains sticky after ignoring food and energy costs.
Wall Street's main indexes opened higher on Monday following a choppy week, with investors looking ahead to a highly awaited U.S. inflation report due later in the week that could test the market's sharp recovery this year.
Foreclosures are rising in the United States as the inflation-driven cost-of-living crunch continues to squeeze households, with May notching a 38 percent jump in repossessions and experts warning of more pain to come.
October saw the highest reading since comparable data going back to 1996 with harmonized inflation up 11.6 percent on the year.
Compared with October, prices were unchanged, the office added.
Inflation a 'War On The Spirit'
Commenting on high food prices and good insecurity issues, Goya Foods CEO Robert Unanue told Fox News that inflation is sapping the holiday spirit.
"We're having problems all over the world with food issues," Mr.
Inflation, measured by the consumer price index (CPI) or personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator, is defined by the consumption price. Thus, consumer credit growth is a close proxy for inflation.
Inflation and Jobs
Despite inflation growth slowing from the 9.1 percent peak in June 2022, price pressures have reaccelerated this past summer.
The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.7 percent in August, up from 3.2 percent in July.
The inflation figures released on Sept. 14 came just a month after President Joe Biden signed a law with a name only George Orwell could have imagined, given the circumstances: the Inflation Reduction Act.
The Fed's favoured inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, is due on Friday and may help shape expectations for the Fed's November meeting.
But as the 4.7 percent core inflation number shows, inflation has continued despite a rapid hike in rates over the last several months. Today's jobs number likely hardens consumers' inflation expectations.
The largest contributor to the insurance crisis—which is rarely mentioned as the biggest driver—is inflation. The Biden administration’s COVID-19, energy, and federal spending policies had created supply chain issues and driven up prices.
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge did better than expected in July. Data from the Commerce Department shows inflation held at 2.5 percent in July, just shy of the Fed's target of 2 percent.