President Donald Trump confirmed that the United States has seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. We have footage of the military operation. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter point. Economist John Lonski explains how the decision could affect consumers and how Wall Street is responding. A federal judge […]
It remains to be seen whether a break in climbing inflation is a blip on the radar, but other indicators are flashing red for longer-run inflation trends.
For the first time in four months, inflation in the United States cooled off. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index was 2.8 percent for the year-long period that ended in February.
Australia’s inflation rate held steady in January, but a slight rise in core inflation has cast doubt on the possibility of another interest rate cut in the first half of the year.
“Inflation is back," Trump told Fox News during an interview alongside tech entrepreneur Elon Musk that aired on Feb. 18. "I'm only here for two and a half weeks, and they said, ‘Oh, Trump inflation’ and I had nothing to do with that.”
What if inflation were running at 40 percent and then rising by only 35 percent? Would he dare go to print with an article claiming that inflation is improving? Not likely.
UK inflation rate. (PA Graphics)
Inflation is expected to steadily rise further over the coming months, with the Bank of England predicting inflation will peak at 3.7 percent in late summer.
“There’s tremendous pain in that burst of inflation that was very global—this was everywhere in all advanced economies at the same time,” Powell said. “Now, inflation itself is way down, but people are still feeling high prices.”
Shelter inflation slowed to 4 percent on a 12-month basis.
Supercore inflation excluding housing services—a metric used by the Federal Reserve to monitor inflation—fell by 0.2 percent and slowed to an annual rate of 2.9 percent.
Implications
Inflation falling below the Bank of England’s (BoE's) 2 percent inflation target, which was exceeded for years owing to high energy prices and supply chain disruptions, could drive a shift in the UK’s economic trajectory.
In other words, about 91.7 percent of the excess inflation realized in the post-pandemic period was demand-driven.
Supply-Driven Inflation, Now
Might the recent uptick in inflation also be demand-driven? It is certainly possible.
The RBA's preferred measure of inflation is trimmed mean inflation, but it also looks at headline inflation and other measures. The bank targets an inflation rate of 2 to 3 percent.
Last month's inflation report said the country experienced the fastest pace of price hikes in almost two years. Higher gas prices driven mainly by the war in Iran pushed the annual rate of inflation up to 2.8 percent in April, according to StatCan.
Inflation is much of the reason. It's more evil than we know, like a cancer that gradually eats the heart of a good society. But let’s be clear: Inflation and free enterprise don't mix. Not now, not ever.
Underlying Inflation Shows Modest Increase
While headline inflation has remained relatively stable, underlying inflation measures suggest ongoing challenges.
The annual trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.5 percent, up from 3.2 percent in September.
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is suing major pharmacy benefit managers (PBM) for allegedly artificially inflating the price of insulin, the agency announced on Sept. 20.
Inflation receded in February for the first time since September 2024, driven by easing price pressures for gasoline and shelter.
The U.S. annual inflation rate slowed to 2.8 percent last month.
Other market pricing, including multiple breakeven rates embedded in inflation-protected Treasury securities, points to lower market-based inflation expectations compared with earlier in the year.
Chalmers Highlights Inflation Progress
Reacting to the latest inflation data, Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasised the significant progress made in tackling inflation since the current government took office.
Commentary
Claims that China is leading in research output are misleading, as state-owned universities are inflating statistics through the use of fabricated, plagiarized research and coerced citations.