Cook Political Report Shifts 11 House Races Toward Democrats, GOP Still Favored in 8

The Cook Political Report shifted 11 more House races toward Democrats on Oct. 16, less than three weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Republicans remain favored in eight of the 11 races, but the changes show that these districts have become more competitive.

Nearly half of the moves are in Ohio, Nebraska, and Kansas. The nonpartisan forecaster moved 18 House races toward Democrats last week.

Republicans’ troubles this cycle are “particularly pronounced in Midwestern red states,” Cook’s Erin Covey wrote in the analysis. She said voters there are frustrated with how both the federal and state governments have handled economic issues. All three states also have competitive Senate races.

Covey wrote that many districts President Donald Trump won by 10 points or more in 2024 are now “firmly in play.” She said seats that voted for President Barack Obama but have since moved toward Republicans also look more competitive than in recent years.

Montana’s First Congressional District moved from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. Democrat Sam Forstag, a 32-year-old former smokejumper, faces Republican Aaron Flint, an Army veteran and radio host, in a district Trump carried by 12 points. Cook cited recent private polls showing Forstag in the lead. It also noted that House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, began airing TV ads this week tying Flint to data centers.

In Florida’s 25th District, Cook moved Rep. Jared Moskowitz’s (D-Fla.) race against former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, a Republican, from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat. Cook said Republicans have spent $14 million in the district since Labor Day and that Moskowitz has kept his edge, according to AdImpact spending figures. Trump won the redrawn district by nine points in 2024. President Joe Biden won it by five in 2020.

In Ohio’s 10th District, Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) faces Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, an Air Force veteran. Cook said private polling shows them “neck-and-neck” in a district Trump won by eight points.

In Ohio’s 15th District, Rep. Mike Carey (R-Ohio) faces Democrat Don Leonard, a former Ohio State University professor. Cook said Democratic polling showing a tied race prompted House Majority PAC to spend there.

In Minnesota’s First District, Rep. Brad Finstad (R-Minn.) faces Democrat Jake Johnson. Cook said public and private polling show them tied in a district Trump won by 12.5 points.

In New York’s 21st District, Republican Anthony Constantino, CEO of Sticker Mule, faces Democrat Blake Gendebien, a dairy farmer. Trump won the district by more than 20 points. Cook cited a Siena College poll showing Gendebien ahead 46 percent to 42 percent, and noted that other polling shows Constantino narrowly ahead.

In South Carolina’s 1st District, Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt, a Charleston County Council member, faces Democrat Nancy Lacore, a retired Navy admiral. Cook said Lacore has an early spending advantage, and that Honeycutt is now getting help from the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund, the main Republican super PAC for House races.

Three races moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

In Nebraska’s First District, Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.) faces Democrat Chris Backemeyer, a former State Department official, in a district Trump carried by 13 points. Cook noted two conservative third-party candidates on the ballot who could draw votes from Flood.

In Florida’s 16th District, Republican Sydney Gruters, former executive director of the New College Foundation, faces Democrat Kelly Kirschner, a former Sarasota mayor. Trump would have carried the redrawn district by 14 points in 2024. Cook said Gruters has outraised Kirschner three to one, but that former Rep. David Jolly’s strength in the Tampa Bay region in the governor’s race gives Democrats a path to victory.

In Kansas’ Second District, Rep. Derek Schmidt (R-Kan.) faces Democrat Don Coover, a rancher and Army veteran, in a district Trump won by 20 points. Cook noted that Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly carried the district in 2018 and 2022.

Rep. Greg Landsman’s (D-Ohio) race against Republican Eric Conroy in Ohio’s First District went from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. Cook said the Congressional Leadership Fund has pulled its TV ad reservations there, and that some recent private polls show Landsman with a double-digit lead.

“Momentum is surging in Democrats’ favor,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Communications Director Courtney Rice said in a statement. The committee said Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Fox News have made 152 rating changes in Democrats’ favor since Labor Day.

NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement to The Epoch Times that House races “are won in the districts, one by one, with battle-tested candidates and messages that work.”

“Pundits in D.C. can keep guessing, but voters on the ground have a clear contrast between common sense and crazy,” Marinella said. “Our candidates are earning every vote, and in November, we’re going to win.”