Cook Political Report Tilts 18 House Races Toward Democrats Weeks from Election

Nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report on Oct. 9 shifted its ratings in 18 House races toward Democrats and raised its estimate of the party’s likely gains to nine to 19 seats. 

That range would give Democrats 224 to 234 seats in the 435-member House, where 218 is a majority. Cook’s Erin Covey wrote in the update that Democrats now need to win only 20 percent of the races rated Toss Up to reach a majority, assuming every seat leaning their way breaks for them.

Covey wrote that Republicans had hoped a large ad campaign would damage Democratic candidates and help GOP incumbents separate themselves from President Donald Trump, but that the spending “has yet to move the needle” with less than four weeks until the Nov. 3 election.

The update comes just days after Cook moved the Kansas Senate race to Toss Up—with the forecaster now projecting Democrats gaining two to six Senate seats, a range that includes the four they need for a majority.

The biggest changes in the House races came in five races that moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Four are held by Republicans: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), who faces Democrat Christina Bohannan; Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), who faces Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott; Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.), who faces Democrat Bob Brooks; and Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who faces Democrat Janelle Stelson. 

Covey wrote that three of the four won by less than two points in 2024 and should be the easiest seats for Democrats to pick up.

The fifth is held by Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.). Covey wrote that her race has looked closer than it should because some progressives are angry over her vote for the SAVE Act, but that most of those voters are likely to back her over Republican state Sen. John Braun.

Four races moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up. They include the seats held by Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and Rob Wittman (R-Va.) and an open seat in Iowa’s 2nd District. The fourth is North Carolina’s 1st District, where Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) is running in a district Covey wrote that Republicans redrew last year to keep him from returning to Congress.

Three races moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. They are an open seat in Kentucky’s 6th District, the seat held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), and Maine’s 2nd District, where Democrat Matt Dunlap faces former Gov. Paul LePage.

Two seats once considered safe for Republicans, held by Reps. French Hill (R-Ark.) and Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Covey wrote that a super PAC funded by Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker plans to spend more than $1 million on TV ads for Hill’s Democratic opponent, Chris Jones.

Four races moved from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. Three are held by Democrats: Reps. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), and Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.). The fourth is Nebraska’s 2nd District, held by retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), where Covey wrote that both parties’ major super PACs are cutting their ad reservations.

NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times on Friday that House races are won district by district with tested candidates and messages that work.

“Pundits in D.C. can keep guessing, but voters on the ground have a clear contrast between common sense and crazy,” he said. “Our candidates are earning every vote, and in November, we’re going to win.”

DCCC Communications Director Courtney Rice said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times on Friday that early voting numbers, volunteer shifts, and the rating changes show Democrats are gaining ground.

“Democrats have all the momentum in these final weeks of the midterm race, and the proof is in the anger voters are expressing over House Republicans’ failures and broken promises,” she said.

She added that “it’s clear the American people are ready to turn the page and elect Democrats to the House Majority.”