Election Forecaster Moves Kansas Senate Race to Toss Up, Raises Democrats’ Projected Gains

The Cook Political Report on Tuesday moved three U.S. Senate races toward Democrats, including Kansas, where it now rates the race between Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Democrat Adam Hamilton a Toss Up.

The nonpartisan election forecaster also moved New Hampshire’s open-seat race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat and North Carolina’s open-seat race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat.

With the changes, Cook raised its estimate of Democratic gains to two to six seats. Republicans hold 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats, so Democrats need to net four to win the majority.

“At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many,” Jessica Taylor, Cook’s Senate and governors editor, wrote in her analysis.

Taylor wrote that Republicans still have a financial advantage in almost every competitive state. She also wrote that Republicans are on the defense even in deep-red states because of rising fuel prices and the cost of living.

Kansas has moved quickly in Cook’s ratings. The forecaster shifted the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on Sept. 23, in an update that also moved races in Georgia and South Carolina toward Democrats. Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in 2024, and Taylor wrote that it remains a heavy lift for Democrats.

Taylor described Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, as a stronger-than-expected challenger with a moderate message. She wrote that Marshall was slow to recognize the threat posed by both his opponent and the political environment. 

She also pointed to the GOP’s falling support in the state’s farm economy, which she tied to high fuel and fertilizer prices and to distrust over beef imports. She wrote that Republicans could lose the seat for the first time in nearly a century.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Republicans, launched a $14 million ad buy in Kansas last week. Its first ad ties Hamilton to Hillary Clinton, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Taylor called the race a dead heat with four weeks to go.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), said on Sept. 30 that “Kansas is a very competitive state.” He said he expects Marshall to win, but that the race will be “closer than I want it to be,” he said.

NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell criticized Hamilton in response to the rating change in an email to The Epoch Times, saying he “would vote with Democrats like Chuck Schumer. He will never be the U.S. Senator from Kansas.”

Former Kansas Gov. Mike Hayden, a Republican, endorsed Hamilton on Oct. 2, making him the second former Republican governor of Kansas to back the Democrat, after Bill Graves endorsed him on Sept. 23.

In New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) faces former Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) for the seat held by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). Cook moved the race to Toss Up several weeks ago, and Taylor wrote that recent surveys now show Pappas opening a lead.

Taylor wrote that Sununu, whose family is the state’s best-known political family, will outperform his party’s standing on the generic ballot. She noted that he is one of the few Republican candidates who has broken with Trump in a meaningful way on the Iran war and tariffs on Canada. Still, in a state where she said Trump is unpopular, she called Pappas the favorite.

In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, for the seat held by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

Taylor wrote that the Senate Leadership Fund began cutting some of its remaining TV ad reservations in North Carolina on Oct. 2 and moving the money to Kansas. She wrote that Whatley “never caught fire as a candidate” and that Republicans privately don’t see a path to victory, though the final margin could still be in the mid-single digits. With the change, North Carolina joins Georgia in Cook’s Likely Democrat column.

Taylor wrote that Republicans still hope to pick up a seat in Michigan and hold one in Maine. Doing both could limit Democrats’ gains and narrowly keep the Senate in Republican hands.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee promoted the new ratings in a statement the same day. The committee noted that Cook had called Democrats’ path to a majority “herculean” in its first ratings of the cycle following the 2024 elections.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.