Kansas and South Carolina Senate Races Grow More Competitive, Election Forecaster Says

The Cook Political Report on Sept. 23 moved the U.S. Senate races in Kansas and South Carolina toward Democrats, while still rating both as favoring Republicans.

Cook, a nonpartisan election forecaster, moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican the Kansas race between Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Democrat Adam Hamilton. It moved the South Carolina race between Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) and Democrat Annie Andrews from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

The forecaster also moved Georgia’s race between Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat, citing Ossoff’s fundraising advantage.

Cook now rates overall control of the Senate a Toss Up, with Democrats projected to net between one and five seats. They need to net four to win the majority.

“Though there is clearly a very blue environment forming, it’s not yet clear if Democrats will be able to convert a national wave into a Senate sweep, given the number of double-digit red seats that Democrats still must win as well as Republicans’ sizable financial advantage,” Jessica Taylor, Cook’s Senate and governors editor, wrote. “But we have entered the most consequential part of the cycle, and it’s now incumbent on Republicans to prove they can withstand the political winds, particularly given the strong Democratic recruits keeping these races competitive.”

In Kansas, Cook pointed to the state’s agricultural economy, citing high fuel and fertilizer prices and a trade war over beef. It also cited Trump’s threats to stop buying planes from Canadian aerospace company Bombardier, which has a plant in Wichita. Marshall has spoken out against those threats, according to Cook.

Cook wrote that Marshall has been put on the defensive over his billing and collection practices as an OB-GYN, which Democrats plan to feature in ads. Republicans, in turn, have attacked Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, as a “woke megachurch CEO,” according to the analysis.

Trump carried Kansas by 16 points in 2024, and the state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in almost a century. Cook noted that polls in 2020 showed a close race that Marshall went on to win by 11 points.

“We see this as an increasingly worrisome contest for the GOP that should be called competitive at this juncture, though one where Republicans still have the edge,” Taylor wrote.

Marshall’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

In South Carolina, Graham was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, and won the Republican nomination over Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.). Cook wrote that Graham has performed unevenly in debates and noted a grassroots campaign to write in Norman’s name in November, which people close to Graham told Cook would have minimal impact.

“To be clear, Graham remains the heavy favorite,” Taylor wrote. “It’s still incumbent upon Andrews to prove she can get out of the mid-40s in polling—always a hurdle in South Carolina—and make this a truly competitive contest.”

“With just six weeks to go, momentum is on our side,” the Andrews campaign said in a post about the race shift. “Let’s bring this thing home, South Carolina.”

Graham’s campaign could not be reached for comment on Thursday.

“Adam Hamilton, Annie Andrews, and Jon Ossoff keep lurching further and further left in red-leaning states, and their woke, tax-hiking policy playbooks will make them unelectable in the general election this November,” Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee did not respond to a request for comment on the shifts before publication.