Cook Political Report Shifts 4 Gubernatorial Races Toward Democrats

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on July 10 moved its ratings in five gubernatorial races, moving all but one in favor of Democrats ahead of the November midterms.

Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors’ editor for the report, wrote that the Democratic Party “now finds itself surprisingly competitive in several red-leaning states, including Ohio and Iowa, due to a favorable national climate and unique Democratic recruits.”

In Arizona, Cook moved the race from “toss up” to “lean Democratic.”

Gov. Katie Hobbs faces reelection. Republicans running for their party’s nomination are Rep. Andy Biggs, Rep. David Schweikert, businessman Ken Miceli, and entrepreneur Scott Neely.

Taylor cited Hobbs’s “significant fundraising advantage” and Biggs, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, as being “polarizing.”

Trump won Arizona in 2016 and 2024, losing it in 2020.

Cook shifted the race in Ohio from “toss up” to “lean Democratic.”

Republican entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is running against Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director.

Cook cites Acton leading or tying in polls despite Ramaswamy’s financial edge.

In Maine, Cook moved the race from “likely Democratic” to “solid Democratic.”

Cook cited that Democratic nominee Hannah Pingree will have a commanding polling advantage over GOP opponent Bobby Charles.

Cook shifted the race in New Mexico from “likely Democratic” to “solid Democratic.”

Democratic nominee Deb Haaland has a fundraising advantage over Republican Greg Hull.

In Oregon, Cook moved the race from “solid Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”

The contest is between Gov. Tina Kotek, a Democrat, and Oregon state Sen. Christine Drazan, a Republican.

Taylor cited “Kotek’s sagging job approval ratings—and a less-than-commanding win” in 2022 for being behind the new rating of what will be a rematch from four years ago.

Taylor wrote that “the new ratings reflect a narrowing field for Republicans.”

These are not the only races Cook has shifted lately.

Last month, Cook moved seven House races in Democrats’ favor.

The author of the ratings changes, Erin Covey, explained her reasoning.

“The races we’re shifting from ‘likely Republican’ to ‘lean Republican’ have not hosted competitive races in recent years,” she wrote.

“But recent polling, candidates’ fundraising, and a difficult political environment for the GOP pushes these races a step toward the center of the House battleground.”

The seats that shifted toward Democrats were in Michigan’s Fourth Congressional District, Minnesota’s First Congressional District, North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, Ohio’s Seventh Congressional District, Iowa’s Second Congressional District, and South Carolina’s First Congressional District.