Forecaster: Redistricting Aids GOP, but Democrats Still Favored If Environment Holds

A leading election forecaster shifted five House races toward Republicans on Monday following Tennessee’s newly redrawn congressional map and a Virginia Supreme Court ruling this past week blocking a Democratic-led mid-decade redraw.

But, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik said Democrats remain favored to win the chamber in November because Republicans “face a number of big-picture headaches as [President Donald] Trump’s approval rating has dipped a bit under 40% and economic pessimism reigns.”

A project of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Sabato’s Crystal Ball now rates 211 districts as at least Leans Republican, 208 as at least Leans Democratic, and 16 as Toss-ups. 

The Virginia Supreme Court ruled 4–3 on May 9 that state Democrats had not followed proper procedure to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would have authorized a mid-decade redraw heavily favoring their party.

Virginia Democrats on Monday filed an emergency petition for the U.S. Supreme Court to take up the case, but it’s unclear whether the justices will agree to hear it. 

The Tennessee map, signed into law on May 7 by Gov. Bill Lee, a Republican, restructures Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen’s district by dividing Memphis among neighboring Republican-held seats. Kondik wrote that Trump carried all nine of Tennessee’s new districts by at least 20 points in 2024. The map followed the U.S. Supreme Court’s April 29 Louisiana v. Callais decision, which limited the use of race in drawing congressional districts.

The five rating changes moved Cohen’s seat from Safe Democratic to Safe Republican.

In Virginia, Rep. Ben Cline’s (R-Va.) Sixth District went from Leans Democratic to Safe Republican; Rep. Jen Kiggans’s (R-Va.) Virginia Beach-based Second District from Leans Democratic to Toss-up; Rep. John McGuire’s (R-Va.) Central Virginia Fifth District from Likely Democratic to Likely Republican; and Rep. Rob Wittman’s (R-Va.) Peninsula-to-Richmond First District from Likely Democratic to Leans Republican.

Kondik wrote that Republicans could pick up additional currently Democratic-held seats in Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina if they redistrict before the November election. Legal challenges remain pending against GOP-drawn maps in Florida and Missouri.

Kondik wrote that the overall map has “a light red hue” but said the political environment continues to favor Democrats, noting that Trump’s approval rating has dipped below 40 percent in some recent polling. There is also a roughly 6-point Democratic lead in generic congressional ballot polling. Kondik linked the latter figure to both Real Clear Politics’ average and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin tracker. 

The same two aggregators differ on Trump’s approval: Silver Bulletin’s polling average shows him at 38.5 percent, while Real Clear Politics’ average shows him at 40.2 percent.

Kondik wrote that the partisan tilt of the House map after this cycle’s redistricting remains comparable to the 2018 map, when Democrats won the chamber. 

He pointed to the median House seat—the district in the middle when all 435 are ranked from most Trump-leaning to most Harris-leaning—as evidence. Before this cycle’s redistricting, the median seat was Arizona’s First District, which Trump carried by about 3 points. The new median is either Wisconsin’s First District, held by Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), or Iowa’s Third District, held by Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa)—both of which Trump carried by 4.5 points.

Liam Buckley, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House Democrats’ campaign arm, said in a statement: “From the gas pump to the grocery store, Americans are paying more for everything because of Republicans’ horrific policies, tariffs, and their war of choice in Iran. With millions of Americans struggling to make ends meet, House Republicans have no chance of holding the majority this November.”

The National Republican Congressional Committee—responsible for electing House Republicans—did not respond to a request for comment before publication time.