Orange County Lost People and Money Post-COVID, Study Finds

MIDDLETOWN, N.Y.—Orange County was hit hard by out-migration from 2021 to 2023, a time marked by high housing prices, remote work, and growing retirement numbers, a new domestic migration study by the Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress shows.

The report found that Orange County suffered the third-worst net loss of population and income of the nine counties in focus. The study covered Westchester and Rockland counties in the south and Orange, Putnam, Dutchess, Ulster, Sullivan, Greene, and Columbia counties farther north.

Between 2021 and 2023, Orange County had a net population loss of 1,811 people and lost $191.3 million in net income. Many people who leave Orange County move to nearby counties in New York, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey.

Orange County’s loss of income falls in line with the rest of the Southern Hudson Valley, as Rockland lost $663.7 million over the same time. Westchester lost the most, a net $1.1 billion.

The report notes that households save 30 percent to 60 percent on property, income, and sales taxes by moving to places such as Bergen County, New Jersey; Pike County, Pennsylvania; and the Western Connecticut Planning Region. Florida, North Carolina, and other Southern states are also popular destinations for Orange County expatriates, as most southern states don’t tax Social Security income or retirement income, such as distributions from 401(k)s or IRAs.

Orange County’s yearly average household income inflow and outflow fluctuate. Some years, the average income of households coming in is higher, and some years the income of households leaving is higher. From 2019 to 2022, the average income of households coming in was $3,000 to $5,000 higher than that of those leaving. From 2022 to 2023, the average income of households coming in was $3,000 lower than that of those leaving.

From 2021 to 2022, Orange County received 4,834 people from the New York City area, and 1,650 people left the county for the city. This reflects the trend of people moving up the Hudson Valley for remote jobs.

Hudson Valley lost a net total of 10,174 people in 2021 to 2022, bringing with them $592.4 million in adjusted gross income. The number of people who moved from the region was 102,700, while 92,526 moved in. This was the biggest population loss in a year since the 2004 to 2005 remigration to New York City post-9/11.

The loss in 2021 to 2022 is part of a larger trend of population loss in the Hudson Valley area. From 1996 to 2022, the region had about 157,000 people move out, representing about 6.5 percent of the population.

The report said that outward migration, declining birth rates, and a growing wave of retirements are imposing significant stress on the regional workforce and customer base, as the labor pool is expected to shrink by 100,000 people in the next decade.

The data in the report were collected from the IRS on March 25, 2026. Pattern for Progress used information from tax returns to track the movement of people between states and between counties.