1.5 Million at Risk From Rising Seas: Climate Report Warns Economy Will Bleed Billions

By 2050, 1.5 million Australians could be living with the direct impacts of rising seas, according to the nation’s first National Climate Risk Assessment.

The figure could climb to more than three million by 2090 if global warming surpasses 3 degrees Celsius.

Released on Sept. 15, the report sets out how climate change may reshape daily life in Australia.

Even at 1.5C of warming, sea levels are projected to rise 0.14 metres. At 3C—the trajectory the world is currently on—major coastal cities and low-lying communities face overlapping threats of flooding, erosion, and permanent inundation.

Heat is another looming crisis. Extreme heat deaths could rise by 444 percent in Sydney and 423 per cent in Darwin under a 3C scenario. Health systems would be pushed to breaking point, with major loss of life likely.

“Australians are already living with the consequences of climate change today but it’s clear every degree of warming we prevent now will help future generations avoid the worst impacts in years to come,” Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said.

Billions at Risk by 2050

The economic cost is estimated to be staggering. Under a 1.5C scenario, floods, bushfires, storms, and cyclones could cost $40 billion a year by 2050.

Property values could fall $611 billion by mid-century, and $770 billion by 2090.

Workforce productivity will also collapse under extreme heat. A 3C scenario could wipe out 2.7 million workdays every year. Businesses will be hit by surging insurance costs and a sharp rise in underinsured properties.

The report said climate risks will be “cascading, compounding, and concurrent,” with disasters overlapping and magnifying one another.

Communities Most At Risk

Northern Australia is flagged as the most vulnerable region. The Northern Territory, northern Queensland, and northern Western Australia already face heatwaves, cyclones, flooding, and bushfires. By 2050, these hazards will intensify and coincide more often.

Meanwhile, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, older residents, and low-income households are disproportionately exposed. Limited access to health, transport and energy services compounds the risks.

Coastal areas are also on the frontline, with low-lying communities within 10 kilometres of soft shorelines particularly vulnerable. By 2090, 34 percent of coastal areas could be classified as high or very high risk, affecting more than three million people.

Regional economies face another layer of vulnerability. Agriculture and tourism are directly tied to climate conditions and will be battered by droughts, floods, and biosecurity threats.

Urban centres are not immune. Heatwaves threaten to overload power grids and public transport networks, while intense rainfall will increase flood risk, damaging homes, businesses, and essential services.

The assessment lists 63 nationally significant climate risks across society. These include threats to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander self-determination and Country, health and food security, infrastructure and supply chains, trade, and national security.

Eleven of the most critical were examined in detail in this first report, with further assessments to follow.

Politics Meets the Climate Crunch

The release of the risk assessment comes just before the Albanese government unveils its 2035 emissions reduction target alongside detailed pathways to net zero across six sectors.

More than 350 companies are urging stronger net-zero goals after Deloitte found Australia’s economy could be $370 billion larger by 2035 with a 75 percent emissions cut.

The target would add 69,000 jobs annually and attract $20 billion in extra investment each year. Exports could also grow by $190 billion by 2050.

Meanwhile, Business Council of Australia modelling says Australia may need up to $530 billion in capital to achieve a 70 percent emissions cut by 2035. The Council says this will require unprecedented investment, faster approvals and urgent policy reform.

Greens Demand Net Zero by 2035

The Greens argued the “chilling” findings of the National Climate Risk Assessment made it clear Australia must adopt net zero emissions by 2035.

Greens Leader Larissa Waters said her party forced the report’s release after Labor withheld it while approving major coal and gas projects.

She argued anything less than a 2035 deadline would lock in more than 2C of warming, with catastrophic consequences for communities, the economy, and the environment.

“If Labor fails to set a science-based climate target then it’s crystal clear: they have utterly prioritised coal and gas profits at the expense of community safety and nature,” she said.

The coalition is yet to clarify its position on net zero. However, the Liberal National Party has already passed a resolution at its Queensland conference to formally abandon the 2050 target.

Some members have also argued in Parliament that the commitment should be scrapped altogether.