Liberal Government to Table Spring Economic Update at End of Month

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne says the government will present an economic update at the end of this month, with the update expected to show how Canada’s fiscal position has shifted since the 2025 budget was tabled last fall.

“This is going to be a plan that is going to help families. It’s going to help our industry. It’s going to help our nation,” Champagne said in the House of Commons on April 14. He said the spring economic plan will be released on April 28.

In its most recent fiscal update last November, the Carney government projected a deficit of $78.3 billion for the most recent fiscal year, while forecasting a gradual decline in the deficit through to 2030.

The November plan focused on reducing the deficit as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) and balancing the government’s operating budget within three years. However, it scrapped a previous plan committing to a consistent decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio, a benchmark long used to signal fiscal discipline.

Larger Deficits

The Parliamentary Budget Officer has cautioned that further spending commitments from Ottawa could cause larger deficits if economic growth turns out to be weaker than projected.

Prime Minister Mark Carney vowed to reduce daily government expenses as well as increase expenditure in defence, infrastructure, and housing. Last year’s budget was split into capital and operating spending streams, and proposed cuts to the size of Canada’s public service and ramped up defence spending to meet NATO’s target of 2 percent of GDP.

New Policies

The spring economic update will also take into account several policy measures put in place since last fall’s update, including a planned increase to the GST credit for lower-middle and low-income Canadians and an upcoming temporary waiver of the federal fuel excise tax. The waiver takes effect April 20 and is set to run until Sept. 7.

The fuel excise tax relief amounts to roughly 10 cents less per litre of gas and four cents less per litre for diesel. It was presented by Carney on April 14 as an aid to “build a stronger economy, a more affordable economy,” as well as reduce operating costs for truckers and businesses in various sectors including agriculture, food, construction, and delivery services.

The measure will cost the government approximately $2.4 billion and is the first policy announced since Carney’s Liberal government achieved a majority in Parliament following floor-crossings and three byelection wins on April 13.

Global Uncertainty

The upcoming spring economic update announced by Champagne comes amid economic uncertainty worsened by the war in Iran, which has caused trade disruptions, oil price hikes, and inflation.

Fuel prices have increased significantly in Canada since the war began at the end of February, with Natural Resources Canada estimating that the average gas price in Canada has gone up by about 50 cents per litre over the past two months.

Conflict in the Middle East has sent energy prices surging, putting a pinch on consumers at the gas pumps and threatening to push inflation higher in the coming months.

Higher global prices on gasoline also tend to boost federal tax revenues and lift economic activity in oil-producing regions of the country, including in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Some economists warn that, depending on how long the Iran war lasts, those higher gas prices could eventually hurt the Canadian economy more than they help.

The Bank of Canada said in a January report that global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are a key risk for Canada’s economic outlook going forward.

GDP Growth

Carney said on April 14 that Canada’s GDP shrank in the fourth quarter of 2025, but showed signals of rebounding in the first two months of this year. He also mentioned forecasts from the International Monetary Fund released earlier on April 14 that he said show Canada is the “second-fastest growing economy in the G7.”

The IMF said the 1.7 percent rise in Canada’s real GDP last year amounts to roughly half the rate of the global average and falls short of the 2.1 percent growth in real GDP experienced last year in the United States.

Poilievre, meanwhile, says Canada has underperforming economic output and high food inflation when compared to other G7 nations.

Canada’s economy is expected to grow at a yearly rate of 1.5 percent for 2026 and 1.9 percent next year, continuing to fall behind the United States but overtaking the rate of growth of a number of European economies, according to the IMF.

The Canadian Press contributed to this report.