Poll Reveals Support for One Nation Now Level With Liberal Party

A new poll reveals the conservative-leaning One Nation party in Australia has drawn level with the traditional centre-right Liberal Party, while support for Labor has taken a dive amid a broader debate about immigration.

The DemosAU snap poll obtained by The Epoch Times and conducted on Jan. 5-6 with 1,027 voters on behalf of business website Capital Brief, showed an almost 17 percent swing to One Nation since last year’s May election.

This surge in support has likely come at the expense of the Liberal-National Coalition, which recorded an 8.8 percent swing away from it, while Labor saw a 5.9 percent loss.

On a two-party preferred basis between Labor and the Coalition, Labor leads 52 percent to 48 percent. However, tentative modelling by DemosAU suggests a two-party preferred contest between Labor and One Nation could yield a 50-50 outcome.

However, this is calculated using the preference flow from the Hunter electorate contest north of Sydney in May where One Nation was the main competitor with Labor.

The polling also shows 31 percent of Coalition voters have switched to One Nation.

If the polling is an accurate reflection of voter sentiment, it would be the first time in decades that a minor party has managed to draw level with Australia’s two major parties, and if it continues, will be the biggest shake-up to the system since the 1940s when Robert Menzies established the current Liberal Party.

Pollster Says Immigration in the Limelight, One Nation in Box Seat

DemosAU research head George Hasanakos said the result of the first poll of 2026 was hardly surprising given certain societal shifts both globally and closer to home.

“It’s not that shocking when you see other polls, for example, in the United Kingdom, showing a Reform Party lead over a first-term Labour government,” he said.

He said domestic factors had also contributed to One Nation’s rise.

“The recent terrorist attack in Bondi has shocked the nation and put issues such as national security, anti-Semitism, immigration, and community cohesion firmly in the spotlight,” Hasanakos said.

“With the rising support of One Nation before this event, it makes this fertile ground for a long-standing anti-immigration voice in [One Nation leader Pauline] Hanson to gain further support.”

Following the Bondi Beach terror attacks that claimed 15 lives, each party has emphasised different responses: the Labor government initially ordered a national gun buyback and review of intelligence and security agencies, finally relenting on a broad royal commission to examine areas like migration and social cohesion.

Coalition leaders have largely criticised Labor’s response to anti-Semitism in Australia since Oct. 7, 2023, while One Nation has generally had the firmest argument against mass migration and assimilation.

The party itself hailed the historic poll results saying it would be the “end of the two-party stranglehold.”

“It is the first time a party outside Labor and the Liberals has surged to this level in a national poll, and it comes at the direct expense of both sides of the tired old duopoly,” the party said on social media.

Pollster Says Keep an Eye on Future Trends

Polling analyst Kevin Bonham, meanwhile, said the results had value but noted the sample size of 1,027 people was a bit on the smaller end.

Bonham also noted that the projected Labor-One Nation two-party-preferred outcome relied on preference flows drawn from the Hunter electorate, which may not be accurate in nationally.

“I advise to not immediately dismiss this just because it’s an outlier,” Bonham wrote on X.

“Polling has been sparse lately and there has been only one other poll post-Bondi. Wait to see what other polls come out with.”

Steady Climb for One Nation

The DemosAU poll confirms existing swings towards One Nation across several other polls since the May election.

In the Resolve Strategic poll in December 2025, One Nation’s primary vote was 14 percent, while a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll conducted a month earlier recorded support at 18 percent, alongside gains for Labor at 38 percent.

An October 2025 Newspoll put One Nation’s primary vote at 15 percent.

One Nation polled 6.4 percent in May.

Resolve also found post-Bondi that Labor’s vote diminished in the 18-34 younger demographic, and 35-54 demographic—likely a response to the federal government’s handling of the fallout.