JPMorgan’s CEO Says US Economy Is Weakening After Big Jobs Revision

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said this week that the U.S. economy is showing signs of strain after a major downward adjustment to government jobs data.

Employment growth was far weaker than initially reported, raising fresh questions about the outlook for growth, inflation, and interest rates.

“I think the economy is weakening,” Dimon told CNBC in an interview on Sept. 9. “Whether it’s on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”

Dimon’s comments followed the Labor Department’s disclosure that nonfarm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 from April 2024 through March 2025—a 37 percent cut from earlier estimates and the largest yearly adjustment on record.

The benchmark revision, which incorporates more comprehensive figures from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, showed job creation slowed to an average of about 70,500 per month over the period, roughly half the originally reported pace.

The scale of the change amplified existing concerns about the reliability of labor statistics, as policymakers and markets rely heavily on jobs data to gauge economic momentum and set interest rate policy.

Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer called for reforming the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the government agency that processes the payroll numbers.

“Today’s massive downward revision gives the American people even more reason to doubt the integrity of data being published by BLS,” Chavez-DeRemer said in a statement after the benchmark revisions were disclosed.

“Leaders at the bureau failed to improve their practices during the Biden administration, utilizing outdated methods that rendered a once reliable system completely ineffective and calling into question the motivation behind their inaction.”

On Sept. 10, the Department of Labor’s internal watchdog launched a review of the challenges the BLS faces regarding the collection and reporting of “closely watched economic data.”

The BLS revisions mark the third straight year that payroll growth was overstated. Last year’s tally was cut by 818,000 jobs, while the 2023 revision shaved 306,000 positions. Private-sector industries, including leisure and hospitality, professional services, retail, and wholesale trade, saw the steepest downward changes this year.

Mixed Signals

Dimon said JPMorgan’s broad customer base gives it unique visibility into economic conditions, and the picture is mixed. Most consumers remain employed and continue to spend, though their confidence has waned, he said.

Amid signs of cooling in the labor market—such as layoffs jumping to a three-month high of 85,979 in August—Americans have grown significantly less confident about being able to find a new job if they lose their current one, recent data from the New York Federal Reserve shows.

The perceived probability of finding another job after getting laid off fell to its lowest level since the Fed started tracking it 12 years ago.

Despite weaker jobs, other data suggest resilience. The services sector expanded in August, with the ISM services index rising to 52, its highest since February, while S&P Global reported solid growth in both services and manufacturing. Still, the ISM’s employment gauge stayed in contraction, signaling that firms remain cautious about hiring.

“We just have to wait and see,” Dimon said of the ultimate direction of the economy, adding that there are various cross-currents affecting the outlook, with signs of consumer weakness on the one hand and still-robust corporate profits on the other.

The veteran bank chief said the Fed would “probably” cut its benchmark rate when it meets later this month. However,  he noted that the move might not prove that “consequential,” hinting that it might come too late to give the economy a meaningful boost.

The Fed has kept interest rates at 4.25 to 4.5 percent since December 2024. President Donald Trump and others in his administration have voiced frustration with the central bank for not lowering rates earlier. They say inflation is largely under control and that borrowing costs remain high, stifling the economy and costing taxpayers more in interest payments on government debt.

Citing major jobs-data revisions, Trump in early August dismissed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and named Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni as her successor.

Markets currently expect a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 16–17 meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing odds near 90 percent of a quarter-point reduction.

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3 percent annualized pace in the second quarter, helped by stronger consumer spending and business investment.