US Jobless Claims Jump to 1-Month High: Department of Labor

The number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits rose to a one-month high, signaling a potential softening of the U.S. labor market.

According to the Department of Labor, initial jobless claims increased by 14,000 to 240,000 for the week ending May 24. The previous week’s level was adjusted down by 1,000 to 226,000.

The latest reading came in higher than the consensus forecast of 230,000.

Michigan led the country in increased jobless claims, up 3,329. This was followed by California (up 1,424) and Nebraska (up 1,322).

In addition, initial unemployment claims filed under programs for federal workers jumped by 15 to 610. Economists have been closely monitoring this metric to determine the impact of the federal government’s workforce reduction recommended by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Continuing jobless claims—a lagging measure of the number of people currently receiving unemployment benefits—increased to 1.919 million from the previous week’s downwardly revised 1.893 million.

The four-week average, which removes week-to-week volatility, was little changed at 230,750.

While layoffs continue to be low, the data indicate individuals are out of work for longer, says Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.

“Laid-off workers are sitting unemployed for longer than a year or two ago. That is showing up in rising continued jobless claims, which reached the highest since late 2021 in mid-May,” Adams said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

This is comparable to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures, which indicate that long-term unemployment has been on the rise.

The rate of individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or longer, as a percentage of the total unemployed, stands at a seven-month high of 23.5 percent.

Next week, a flurry of employment data will be released, providing market watchers with greater insight into the labor market’s health.

The May jobs report, scheduled for release on June 6, could show “further moderation in hiring,” according to Bankrate’s senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick.

“Despite the headwinds of tariffs, some of which are now in legal limbo, and broader policy uncertainty, new unemployment claims have remained restrained,” Hamrick said in a statement to The Epoch Times.

“There has been a modest upward tilt to continuing claims reflecting ongoing demand for assistance. DOGE cuts haven’t been broadly reflected in the employment data in part because of ongoing severance payments.”

Economists anticipated the U.S. economy would add 130,000 new jobs this month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2 percent.

CEO Confidence Craters

Confidence among executives plummeted in the second quarter, registering the sharpest drop in nearly 50 years.

The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence declined by 26 points in the current quarter to 34—anything below 50 signals more negative than positive responses. This was the largest quarterly decline in the survey’s history, which began in 1976.

Executives’ views declined across the board and “weakened into pessimism territory,” says Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board.

“Expectations for the future also plummeted, with more than half of CEOs now expecting conditions to worsen over the next six months, both for the economy overall and in their own industries,” Guichard said.

“CEOs’ assessments of current conditions in their own industries—a measure not included in calculating the topline Confidence measure—also fell sharply in Q2,” according to a Conference Board press release.

The U.S.–China tariff pause made little difference to executives’ concerns about the future, as they reported similar views about the economy before and after the May 12 announcement.

Additionally, 83 percent of polled CEOs anticipate a recession within the next 12 to 18 months.

Possibly as a result of labor shortages and/or uncertainty emanating from trade policy, U.S. executives do not expect to change their headcount over the next 12 months.

The number of CEOs planning to bolster their workforce slipped to 28 percent from 32 percent in the previous quarter. Additionally, the share of executives intending to trim their payrolls rose to 28 percent from 27 percent.

“CEOs named geopolitical instability, followed by trade and tariffs, as the two top business risks impacting their industry in Q2,” said Roger Ferguson, the vice chairman of The Business Council and chair emeritus of The Conference Board.

These views differ from the public’s latest examination of the broader economy.

The organization’s Consumer Confidence Index, which rebounded this month, found that more consumers were optimistic about current business and labor market conditions and future income prospects.