The Dangers of False Statistics

Commentary

Statistics are powerful. They illuminate unknown facts, shape policy decisions, and–when properly used–can even save lives.

But when data is collected improperly, stripped of context, or massaged to fit preferred narratives, it stops reflecting reality and can have deadly consequences.

During the pandemic, statistics related to COVID cases, COVID hospitalizations, and COVID deaths were repeatedly presented in ways that were inaccurate or misleading, paving the way for harmful lockdowns and vaccine mandates.

A new report from the Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms, “Post-Covid Canada: The Rise in Unexpected Deaths,” analyzes Canadian death statistics by age and by cause of death. One key theme kept recurring: the misuse of statistics.

COVID deaths were significantly overcounted. This was largely driven by the vague and overbroad definitions of COVID deaths created by the World Health Organization (WHO) in April 2020, which were adopted by Canada and countries around the world. As a result, deaths were attributed to the virus even when COVID was just “assumed to have caused, or contributed to death,” or when death resulted from a “clinically compatible illness.” That is, terminally ill cancer patients were classified as “COVID deaths” if they tested positive for the virus at the time of death.

One example of over-attributing deaths to COVID was among the elderly. Statistics Canada attributes 27,000 deaths among Canadians aged 65 and above to the virus in 2020 and 2021. However, in relation to the total number of elderly Canadians dying each year before 2020, the increase was 17,000, not 27,000.

Unsurprisingly, Statistics Canada reports abnormally low numbers of deaths from dementia, Parkinson’s, and other respiratory illnesses in 2020 and 2021: 13,500 fewer than in previous years. Further, influenza, which kills hundreds of Canadians each year, had less than 20 reported deaths in 2021. These lower death numbers correlate with the over-reporting of COVID deaths.

Overbroad and vague definitions of COVID deaths, however, were not the first instance of using statistics to create “catastrophes” for public consumption. When COVID first began to spread across the globe, the statistical projection models used by various “experts” and organizations famously projected 40 million deaths worldwide in 2020 alone. These exaggerated apocalyptic predictions, provided justification for unprecedented lockdowns in Canada and worldwide.

Statistics Canada data also reveal how lockdowns contributed to the rise in additional and unexpected deaths—even while the very idea that lockdowns themselves could cause deaths was denied. The human cost of lockdowns can be seen in the 6,750 unexpected deaths in 2020 and 2021 from lockdown-related diseases, including liver disease, hypertension, and diabetes, in addition to the 3,680 unexpected deaths from drug overdoses and liver disease for Canadians under 65. Meanwhile, the human cost of delayed or missed medical diagnoses and care (e.g., cancer) is not yet known.

Yet, when Canadians raised questions about the harms that lockdowns were inflicting, they were dismissed as “not following the science.”

Disturbingly, the number of unexpected deaths increased significantly after 80 percent of Canadians were considered “fully vaccinated” against COVID by end of 2021. Unexpected deaths were much higher in 2022 (31,370) than in the first two years of the pandemic in 2020 (14,950) and 2021 (13,510), and remained high in 2023 (13,960). Why did 2022 have the highest number of unexpected deaths after most Canadians were “fully vaccinated?” Why did unexpected deaths remain as high long after COVID in 2023 and 2024 as in the first two years of the pandemic?

Deaths attributed to COVID specifically similarly spiked after most Canadians were “fully vaccinated,” going from an average of 15,200 deaths in 2020–2021, to 19,900 deaths in 2022, and remained high in 2023 (8,000). How did the COVID vaccine save lives? More than one-third of unexpected deaths in 2022–2023 were not attributed to COVID. Did the vaccine play a role in their premature deaths?

The data that shows COVID vaccine deaths to be a serious issue is now being ignored. Following the vaccine rollout in 2021, there were increases in deaths from diseases of the nervous system (especially among the young), falls among the elderly, issues of the digestive system, and heart diseases. There were up to 4,000 additional and unexpected deaths from these causes in 2022 alone.

Another statistical issue was the overly high estimated number of unexpected deaths published by Statistics Canada and other organizations. Different models used in Canada and around the world consistently projected higher numbers of unexpected (more than triple in some cases) than the Justice Centre’s models, which take into account all the relevant population changes. Whether intentional or not, these projections made COVID seem far more dangerous than it actually was.

Curiously, Canada stopped producing estimated “excess” (or unexpected) death numbers in 2023. This came at a time when the data continued to show abnormally high “excess deaths” long after COVID vaccines, and no longer supported the narrative that vaccines were effective and harmless.

One of the most concerning statistics is the rise in deaths from “unknown causes,” especially among Canadians under age 45. Initially at 25 percent of total deaths in this age group, 15 percent (2,640 of 17,780) of 2022 deaths still remain unspecified today, in 2025. This coincides with a disturbing rise in “mysterious deaths,” often involving a “mystery neurological disease,” across all Canadian provinces.

Why did these 2,640 young Canadians die? Why is this issue not being addressed?

There is also a chronic issue with delays of important death statistics in general, which were exacerbated during COVID, where the 2019 death statistics were released on Nov. 26, 2020—11 months after year-end. The 2020 data took 13 months (Jan. 24, 2022), followed by 20 months for 2021 (Aug. 28, 2023), and back to 11 months for 2022, and 11 and 13 months for 2023 death data. Why is the reporting of crucial death statistics taking so long?

Somehow, Canada managed to report COVID cases and deaths daily, but reporting regular death statistics takes years. Why this difference?

Exaggerating some statistics and ignoring or delaying others was not the only statistical misuse during the pandemic.

For instance, an Ontario model showed unvaccinated people being at considerably higher risk of contracting COVID than the vaccinated. While these fraudulent statistics were eventually exposed, the unfounded claims provided the foundation for Ontario’s extended vaccine mandates.

Another example involved studies counting injected individuals as “unvaccinated” for the first two weeks following vaccination, supposedly to allow for the vaccine to take effect. However, this skewed death statistics by attributing deaths that occurred during these two weeks to the “unvaccinated” group.

The mishandling of statistics was compounded by censoring medical experts and scientists who challenged the prevailing narrative. Together, the distortion of accepted statistics and the censoring of contradictory evidence created a highly effective deception campaign, whether by design or not.

In short, the misuse of statistics during COVID was not an isolated event—it was a pattern that reinforced the prevailing narrative and justified the draconian, freedom-violating policies that harmed Canadians.

For statistics to guide sound policy, they must be accurate, transparent, timely, and presented in context. Parliament and provincial legislatures should implement independent oversight of how public health agencies collect, interpret, and report their numbers. Politicians must challenge official data, not simply rubber-stamp it.

The media’s role is no less important. They should scrutinize the numbers, ask the difficult and controversial questions, and hold our governments and public health authorities accountable.

Canadians, likewise, must develop the habit of questioning the numbers and demanding evidence. Because when statistics lie, people die.

Benjamin Klassen is the Research and Education Coordinator at the Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms. He is one of the authors of the Justice Centre’s new report discussed in this column: Post-Covid Canada: The Rise in Unexpected Deaths.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.