Horses, Favorites, Longshots—What to Know About Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic

Most sports fans are well aware of the Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing—the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes—but there is also the Grand Slam of Thoroughbred Racing, with the fourth leg of that series taking place this Saturday at Del Mar Racetrack in the San Diego area.

The Breeders’ Cup Classic, the highlight of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, boasts a star-studded field of 10 racehorses, highlighted by Horse of the Year favorite Sovereignty.

While Sovereignty won the Derby and Belmont, bypassing the Preakness in between, it’s no slam dunk that he’ll prevail at the Breeders’ Cup Classic. One reason is that this race is open to horses ages 3 and older, while the Triple Crown is only for 3-year-olds. Thus, Sovereignty will compete against horses that are 4 or 5 years old, and colts typically peak as racehorses at ages 4-5. Six of his nine competitors are at those ages, so Sovereignty is stepping up in weight class Saturday.

The horse who won the Preakness is one of Sovereignty’s biggest rivals—in the same way that Josh Allen is a “rival” of Patrick Mahomes. Just as Allen has never defeated Mahomes in the playoffs, Preakness victor Journalism has never defeated Sovereignty in a race. The former has placed either first or second in each of his last eight races but is coming off a runner-up at this same Del Mar track in late August. Journalism’s handlers decided to part ways with the jockey who had ridden the horse in all eight of those starts. We’ll see if this personnel change finally results in Journalism prevailing over his nemesis.

With the Breeders’ Cup’s wider age range, horses can run in the race multiple years. Sierra Leone is doing that, and he’s looking to win in consecutive years. His 2024 victory remains the biggest triumph of his career, and that year’s field included a pair of horses—Fierceness and Forever Young— who also return to the 2025 race. Sierra Leone is hoping to become just the second horse to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic back-to-back, joining Tiznow (2000-01).

While competing multiple years is on the table, so is one trainer having multiple horses in a single field. Todd Pletcher is using the “strength in numbers” philosophy as he’s saddling three of the 10 horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic field: Fierceness, Mindframe and Antiquarian. Fierceness has the best odds of winning, as he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2023, a race for 2-year-olds, was runner-up at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic, and won his last start in August, which happened to take place at Del Mar.

A major thoroughbred race would not be complete without the biggest name in the sport, Bob Baffert. The trainer who has both the most Kentucky Derby wins (six) and the most Preakness victories (eight), unsurprisingly, also has the most Breeders’ Cup Classic wins (four). Baffert has a longshot this year in Nevada Beach, a novice who just started his thoroughbred career in April, but Baffert is also teaming with Mike Smith, the winningest active jockey at this event, who has four Breeders’ Cup Classic wins to his name.

While Nevada Beach is a longshot, the biggest underdog in the field is Contrary Thinking, a horse who has finished in the money—placing first, second, or third—just once over his last six starts. His role in this race, unofficially, is to set a fast pace, which he is more than adept at doing, but he likely won’t be a factor after the first few furlongs.

Rounding out the 10-horse field are the Japan-based Forever Young and the fleet of foot Baeza. Forever Young has spent the last calendar year racing abroad—he hasn’t been seen in the United States since placing third at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic. He’s hoping to become the third foreign horse to win this race, joining Black Tie Affair (Ireland, 1991) and Invasor (Argentina, 2006).

As for Baeza, few can match his top Equibase Speed Figure of 116, though any horse racing pundit will tell you it takes more than raw speed to win. Baeza is hoping to do what his father, McKinzie, was unable to do by winning this race. McKinzie placed 12^th (of 14 horses) at the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic, then dramatically improved a year later by finishing as runner-up.

The field of 10 will go to post at 6:25 p.m. ET on Saturday. This event is the final of 14 races during the 2025 Breeders’ Cup World Championships. A $7 million purse is up for grabs, with the winner’s share being $3.64 million. Three of the last five winners of this race have subsequently been named the Horse of the Year, with this year’s winner having a legitimate claim to that honor, the highest in American thoroughbred racing.