NYC Mayoral Race Down to Single-Digit Margins on Eve of Election

As final undecided voters make up their minds to cast their ballot for New York City’s next mayor, margins seem to be tightening on the eve of Election Day, with Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani maintaining a lead and his opponents making a last-ditch effort to consolidate support behind former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

The race is among the nation’s most-watched on Election Day 2025, as a victory for democratic socialist Mamdani would represent a significant political win for the Democratic Party’s left flank.

For months, Mamdani has been projected in polling to be on track for a double-digit win, and these polling numbers have held in the final stretch of the race.

However, on the eve of the election, President Donald Trump, who has been outspoken in his opposition to Mamdani’s policy agenda, urged Republicans to back Cuomo over the Republican nominee, Curtis Sliwa, which could throw off the pollsters’ predictions.

Here’s what to know.

The Candidates

Initially, the race was set to be a showdown between Mamdani, Cuomo, sitting New York City Mayor Eric Adams, and Sliwa.

Since then, the race has tightened after Adams—who has faced corruption allegations during his tenure and maintained his innocence—dropped out in September and threw his backing behind Cuomo.

Mamdani has run on a platform of city-run grocery stores, free buses, rent freezes for stabilized tenants, free child care, a minimum wage of $30 per hour by 2030, a tax on those making more than $1 million annually, and a department of community safety.

He’s also running on “Trump-proofing” New York City through measures such as strengthening New York City’s status as a sanctuary for illegal immigrants.

He has won the backing of progressive figures, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), both of whom similarly describe themselves as democratic socialists.

Cuomo’s platform includes increasing affordable housing, increasing the size of the New York Police Department, expanding access to mental health services, and combating anti-Semitism.

He’s sought to win the support of Jewish voters in New York City who may be alienated by Mamdani’s position on Israel and related issues.

Cuomo carries political baggage from his departure from the governorship amid accusations of sexual harassment of his female employees. Cuomo has denied the claims.

Sliwa faces an uphill battle in New York City, one of the most Democratic-leaning areas of the country.

Sliwa is chief executive of the Guardian Angels, a crime-fighting nonprofit. His platform includes converting commercial spaces into housing, implementing a tough-on-crime agenda, expanding housing for seniors and working families, and hiring more police officers.

Mamdani Leads in Polls

In the final polls taken of the race, including one that concluded on Nov. 2, Mamdani maintains the advantage.

Atlas Intel, which has a track record of being among the most accurate pollsters in both the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections, wrapped up a poll on Nov. 2 that found that Mamdani’s lead had shrunk from its previous double-digit margins down to just 5 percent.

Specifically, that poll found that Mamdani had 44 percent support, compared to 39 percent for Cuomo and 16 percent for Sliwa.

This poll, which could be the final poll of the race, shows a race that has gotten much closer than it previously was.

Until recently, Mamdani had maintained a double-digit lead in the polls, averaging around 45 percent support. Cuomo had garnered an average of 30 percent support in the polls. Sliwa, meanwhile, had averaged around 15 percent support.

Trump Throws Curveball

Trump’s last-minute decision to endorse Cuomo, however, throws a curveball into the race that could see radically different results than pollsters predicted.

In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump urged New Yorkers to back Cuomo over Sliwa.

“A vote for Curtis Sliwa … is a vote for Mamdani,” Trump wrote. “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”

Trump said that if Mamdani—who Trump described as “a Communist”—is elected, then the “once great City [of New York] has ZERO chance of success, or even survival!”

The president also threatened to pull federal funding “other than the very minimum as required” out of the city.

“It is my obligation to run the Nation, and it is my strong conviction that New York City will be a Complete and Total Economic and Social Disaster should Mamdani win,” Trump wrote. “His principles have been tested for over a thousand years, and never once have they been successful. I would much rather see a Democrat, who has had a Record of Success, WIN, than a Communist with no experience and a Record of COMPLETE AND TOTAL FAILURE.”

With Cuomo just five points behind Mamdani in the most recent polling, Trump’s endorsement could push enough Republicans to switch their vote to elect Cuomo.

GOP Eyes Barring Mamdani From Taking Office

Meanwhile, some Republicans in Congress say they’re eyeing a contingency plan if Mamdani is elected.

In a post on X, Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) suggested that the 14th Amendment “may allow Congress the authority to BAN Mamdani from office.”

He reposted an exclusive report on the plan from The New York Post alongside the statement.

Specifically, Ogles and other Republicans believe that the 14th Amendment’s prohibition on anyone who “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” or who has “given aid or comfort to the enemies” of the nation taking office could be applied in this case, citing Mamdani’s calls to resist federal immigration enforcement in the city.

That could be easier said than done, however.

During the 2024 election, Democrats sought to remove Trump from the ballot in Colorado and elsewhere using similar arguments.

At the time, courts ruled that it was up to Congress to make such a determination.

Thus, for Republicans to move forward with the plan, they’d need to win a simple majority vote in the 219–213 House and overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold in the Senate.

Jackson Richman contributed to this report.