Polls Suggest One Nation Most Popular Party in Victoria, Could Be Opposition in SA

New polling suggests a political realignment may be rippling not just in Australian federal politics, but also at state-level, with fresh polling showing the conservative-leaning One Nation continuing to surge.

In South Australia (SA), the party is now threatening to overtake the centre-right Liberal Party as the main opposition ahead of the March state election in a few weeks

While a major Roy Morgan survey of 2,462 residents in Australia’s second most-populous state of Victoria, found One Nation leading the primary vote ahead of both the Labor government and the Liberal-National Coalition.

One Nation’s Support Explodes in South Australia

A Newspoll conducted by The Australian newspaper found One Nation’s support in SA has hit 24 percent, while the Liberals have fallen to just 14 percent of the primary vote.

While the polling won’t position One Nation as election leaders—the first-term SA Labor government still polls at a robust 44 percent—the result could see the former minor party become the main opposition.

The Greens continue to hover around 12 percent of the primary vote.

A statewide Fox and Hedgehog poll published on Feb. 10, placed Labor at 40 percent, One Nation at 20 percent, and the Liberals’ at 19 percent.

On a two-party preferred basis after preference flow estimates, both One Nation and the Liberals still trail the Labor government.

‘Apocalyptic’ for the SA Liberals: Polling Experts

Pollster and former Labor advisor, Kos Samaras, said the results show “what the new world looks like.”

“The established conservative party being replaced by a popular right alternative,” he wrote on X.

“Voters who feel economically exposed, culturally ignored, or simply furious with ‘the system’ aren’t shopping around within the old centre-right ecosystem anymore.”

Josh Sunman, a public policy associate lecturer at Flinders University, said the Liberals could lose their 13 lower house seats for just three.

“This is genuinely apocalyptic for the Liberal Party in South Australia,” he said, in comments obtained by AAP.

“The government’s got a pretty strong campaign going, they’re sticking to their narrative of building SA, but the Liberals don’t have a narrative, and that’s what’s really hurt them in the campaign.”

One Nation Steams Ahead in Victoria

Meanwhile, One Nation is doing even better in Victoria.

New Roy Morgan polling from Feb. 13–16 showed the party leading on 26.5 percent, ahead of the third-term Labor government at 25.5 percent, and the Liberals at 21.5 percent

The Greens have only managed 13.5 percent of the vote in recent polling, with another 13 percent going to other minors and independents.

The Victorian state election is still nine months away and Roy Morgan predicts that if the election were held now, it would result in a hung parliament and create unpredictable results across many electorates—meaning second and third preferences would be critical.

Additionally, on the two and three-party preferred results, Labor comes out on top, but electors told Roy Morgan they preferred Liberal Opposition Leader Jess Wilson over incumbent Labor leader Jacinta Allan.

Polling also showed an overwhelming majority—67.5 percent of participants—were unhappy with Allan’s governance.

One Nation has vowed to make the most of the momentum, pledging to “take Victoria back.”

“We have made history,” One Nation Victoria said in a statement.

“We are standing up for a fair go for Victorians, demanding a government that’s clean and accountable, and pushing for real change.”