Rubio Says US–Iran Peace Talks Making Progress: ‘Some Good Signs’

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday there was “slight progress” in U.S.–Iran peace talks, after President Donald Trump said days earlier that the negotiations were approaching a decisive moment and that Tehran must deliver the “right answers” or face renewed attacks.

“I don’t want to exaggerate it, but there’s been a little bit of movement, and that’s good,” Rubio said at a May 22 meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Sweden, days after Trump said he was holding off on strikes against Iran to give negotiations more room.

“There’s some good signs,” Rubio said, adding that he didn’t want to come across as “overly optimistic” and that developments “over the next few days” would likely provide more clarity.

Rubio’s comments came as Pakistan-mediated negotiations between Washington and Tehran have continued amid a fragile ceasefire that has largely halted the fighting.

Iran’s foreign minister and Pakistan’s interior minister met on Friday to discuss proposals for a permanent settlement of the war, Iranian state-run media Tasnim and ISNA reported, with Tehran’s uranium stockpile and control of the Strait of Hormuz remaining the key sticking points.

Trump said on social media earlier this week that leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates urged him to hold off on resuming strikes against Iran because negotiators believed that “a deal will be made.”

He later told reporters at Joint Base Andrews that the situation remained volatile and could escalate quickly if Iran failed to agree to key U.S. demands, in particular around nuclear weapons.

“Believe me, if we don’t get the right answers, it goes very quickly. We’re all ready to go,” Trump said, adding that, “we’re in the final stages” of talks.

“Either have a deal, or we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty,” Trump said. “Ideally, I’d like to see few people killed, as opposed to a lot. We can do it either way.”

Economic Fallout Grows

The war has been a drag on the global economy, with rising oil prices stoking fears of rampant inflation. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments traveled through the Strait of Hormuz before the United States and Israel launched a military campaign on Feb. 28 that left Iran’s top leadership dead and much of its military decimated.

Still, Iran appears to have retained significant missile and drone capability, while its fleet of small speedboats has been a menace to vessels seeking transit through Hormuz, reducing traffic through the critical maritime waterway to a near standstill.

Iran’s ambassador to France, Mohammad Amin-Nejad, told Bloomberg in an interview on May 20 that Iran was discussing with Oman setting up some form of a permanent toll system that would formalize Iran’s control of Hormuz traffic.

“Iran and Oman must mobilize all their resources both to provide security services and to manage navigation in the most appropriate manner,” Amin-Nejad told the outlet. “This will entail costs, and it goes without saying that those who wish to benefit from this traffic must also pay their share.”

Tehran took steps last week to cement its control of the Strait of Hormuz by introducing a new body—the Persian Gulf Strait Authority—that would oversee maritime transit through the chokepoint and collect tolls.

Trump, when asked about Iran’s designs to levy fees on ships, rejected the scheme and insisted the only lasting solution is freedom of navigation.

“We want it open, we want it free, we don’t want tolls,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday.

Uncertainty over the direction of the peace talks sent the U.S. dollar to a six-week high on Friday, while oil prices climbed as investors digested prospects of a breakthrough.

“We’re coming to the end of week 12, we’re six weeks in the ceasefire,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. “I’m just not really that convinced we’re any closer to a resolution between the U.S. and Iran.”

The head of the International Energy Agency predicted on May 21 that, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the start of this year’s summer travel season could trigger a global energy crisis.

Iran submitted its latest offer to the United States earlier this week. The proposal includes war reparations, the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from areas surrounding Iran, and the right to uranium enrichment.