What MP Matt Jeneroux’s Defection to Liberals Means for House of Commons Dynamics

News Analysis

The Liberals’ quest to reach majority status took another turn on Feb. 18, with yet another Conservative MP crossing the floor.

After losing three seats in recent weeks, the Liberals are regaining one, and an upcoming byelection in Quebec could prove pivotal. That’s if there are no more resignations or defections in the volatile House of Commons.

Alberta MP Matt Jeneroux, who had announced his intention in November 2025 to resign his seat to focus “entirely” on his family, said he was inspired by Prime Minister Mark Carney to stay on and join the Liberal caucus.

“Quite honestly, it was the speech in Davos where you took everything head on, and I think for me, that’s where a lot of the world changed,” Jeneroux told Carney during a brief joint media appearance in Edmonton on Feb. 18.

Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January described a “rupture” of the international rules-based order and had a tone similar to messaging used by the Liberals during the 2025 election campaign. That campaign had a focus on standing up to U.S. President Donald Trump and his protectionist measures.

The Davos speech, coupled with Carney’s speech in Quebec City shortly after, and his implementation of a boost to the GST credit as an affordability measure, led to speculation the Liberals were gearing up for a snap election.

Liberals have been running high in the polls and in recent months have been trying to poach opposition MPs to reach a majority.

With Jeneroux joining their caucus, the Liberals climb back up to 169 seats—three short of a majority.

Previous defections from the Tories to the government side in late 2025 had brought the Liberals to 171 seats, but they have since lost three seats.

Upcoming Byelections

Former cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland resigned her seat in early January after taking an advisory role with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Her former cabinet colleague Bill Blair resigned his seat earlier this month to become Canada’s next high commissioner to the United Kingdom.

Meanwhile, Liberal MP Tatiana Auguste lost her seat on Feb. 13, when the Supreme Court nullified the result of the 2025 federal election in the riding of Terrebonne, Que., which the Liberal Party had won by a single vote. It was later discovered that a mail-in vote for the Bloc Québécois had not been counted due to Elections Canada printing a wrong return address.

If the current status quo remains in terms of MPs staying put, and Carney decides not to call a snap election, the prospective byelection in Terrebonne could be pivotal to determining whether the Liberals can reach a majority.

Carney said this week the Terrebonne byelection would be held “soon.” The seat previously belonged to the Bloc Québécois. Projection website 338Canada.com currently declares the riding a “toss up” between the Bloc and the Liberals, with the Bloc at 39 percent and the Liberals at 38 percent in voting intentions.

Carney visited the Terrebonne riding on Feb. 17 and met with his now former MP Auguste.

Freeland’s and Blair’s former ridings in Toronto are considered safe Liberal seats. Carney said byelections for these ridings would take place this summer.

At this point, given current polling, it is unlikely Tories could pull an upset like they did in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s in June 2024. The riding had been a Liberal stronghold for over three decades and the Tory win marked the beginning of the end for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The Liberals won back Toronto-St. Paul’s by a large margin in 2025.

Cooperation

Jeneroux’s defection occurred while the House was not sitting. In recent weeks, following the return from the holiday break, the Conservatives had indicated that they intended to cooperate with the government on issues such as affordability.

Putting words to practice, Tories introduced a motion to speed up the adoption of the bill legislating on the GST credit boost introduced by the Liberals. Bill C-19 became law on Feb. 12.

Before the break, the Tories and Liberals were holding talks to secure passage of the Budget Implementation Act (Bill C-15). Budgetary issues are typically considered matters of confidence, meaning that if they fail to get House approval, it can trigger an election.

The Conservatives voted against Carney’s budget plan in November and are currently trying to remove some provisions in order to offer their support for Bill C-15.

Tory House Leader Andrew Scheer said last week his party has not changed its posturing because of bad polling and the prospects of an early election. He noted how the Conservatives have backed the Liberals’ Bill C-5 on major projects and the removal internal federal trade barriers, as well as the second iteration of the border security bill, Bill C-12.

Meanwhile Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon said no deal has been made with the Tories to avoid going into an early election. MacKinnon added, however, that he believes the current Parliament can function.