Florida, California Lead Nation in Risk of Property Value Declines: Report

High unemployment and above-average foreclosure rates put homeowners in a handful of counties in California and Florida at risk of declines in their current home values, a report by housing analytics provider ATTOM stated.

The June 4 report examined foreclosure rates, affordability, and the number of homes where owners’ mortgages were underwater, or greater than the market value of their residences, in 580 counties. Florida led the nation in risk of falling property values, with 12 of its 67 counties vulnerable to declines. It was followed by California, with nine counties, and New Jersey and Illinois, with five each.

Regional unemployment rates and average wages required to maintain home ownership also factored into a county’s risk factor, the report noted.

“Home prices have eased slightly from last summer’s record highs, [but] affordability remains a challenge in much of the country,” ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said.

“The greatest risk remains in counties where unemployment rates are above 5 percent and homes are being foreclosed at greater rates.”

Charlotte County, Florida, was considered the market with the greatest risk of declining property values, ATTOM researchers said. The southwestern Sunshine State county’s unemployment rate was 5.7 percent in April 2026, significantly higher than the national unemployment rate of 4.3 percent for the same month. According to the Florida Department of Commerce, Charlotte County has a large population of retirees, and nearly two-thirds of its workforce hold jobs outside the county, leading to higher-than-average unemployment.

Butte and Shasta counties in Northern California were also among the leading counties at risk, according to ATTOM. The unemployment rate in April was 5.6 percent in Butte County and 5 percent in Shasta County, the state’s Employment Development Department stated.

High home prices in many California counties can create additional affordability pressures for homeowners, putting them at greater risk of future financial difficulties. The national median price for a single-family home in the first quarter was $404,300, the National Association of Realtors said, and median sales prices are much higher throughout the Golden State.

The statewide median sales price in California in the first quarter dipped by 3 percent year over year but was still more than double the national average, at $843,390, the California Association of Realtors reported. According to ATTOM, Santa Cruz, Marin, San Luis Obispo, and Orange counties ranked among the nation’s least affordable; only Kings County, New York, ranked lower in affordability.

On the other side of the coin, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin had the highest number of counties with the least risk of property value decline. At the county level, Chittenden County, Virginia; Rutherford County, Tennessee; and Arlington County, Virginia, led the nation with the lowest risk because of strong employment, low foreclosure rates, and fewer underwater mortgages, the ATTOM report said.

Across the nation, 3.2 percent of all homes were considered seriously underwater, with mortgages at least 25 percent higher than current market values. All five of the country’s leading counties with underwater mortgages were located in Louisiana; they are Ouachita, Calcasieu, Tangipahoa, Ascension, and Rapides parishes.

Liberty County, Texas; Baltimore City, Maryland; and Dorchester County, South Carolina had the highest foreclosure rates, ATTOM researchers found.