Manufacturing Leads Rebound in July Job Openings

Durable goods manufacturing drove July’s rebound in job openings, new government data released on Sept. 1 show.

The number of job vacancies rose by 89,000 to 7.27 million, from a downwardly revised 7.18 million in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This came in below the consensus estimate of 7.3 million.

While this year’s job market is performing better than it did in 2025, payrolls have struggled to sustain momentum.

A little more than 400,000 jobs have been added this year—equal to approximately 61,000 jobs a month on average—and the economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 positions in July.

But demand for labor has been stable, with job openings hovering slightly above pre-pandemic levels.

July’s job vacancies were fueled by durable goods manufacturing (76,000), followed by healthcare and social assistance (54,000), and wholesale trade (50,000).

Opportunities in the construction sector also increased by 28,000.

Openings declined primarily in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (67,000) and professional and business services (65,000), the bureau reported.

But while job opportunities have been elevated since April, hiring has been more subdued.

The number of new hires was little changed in July at 5.1 million, with the professional and business services sector down 188,000.

Various surveys suggest small businesses plan to expand their hiring efforts in the coming months. At the same time, a key challenge for employers is finding qualified talent to fill these positions.

In the meantime, U.S. employers are holding on to their staff.

Layoffs and discharges were flat at 1.7 million, and the finance and insurance industry was the only area of the economy to register a sizable decrease in terminations (22,000).

The lack of pervasive layoffs has been a key theme for the world’s largest economy over the past two years.

The unemployment rate sits at just 4.1 percent. Unemployment claims have also been in a tight, historically low range between 189,000 and 230,000 in 2026.

Economic observers largely expected the jobless rate to remain low amid tepid growth in the labor supply.

The Dallas Federal Reserve estimates the breakeven rate—the number of new jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate low—is close to zero.

“When labor supply is barely growing, monthly job gains are naturally going to run low,” Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said in his Jackson Hole keynote address on Aug. 28.

“In my view, the relatively low turnover in today’s labor market is partly a result of the significant rematching between employers and employees that happened at scale in the post-pandemic environment.”

Fewer workers voluntarily stepped down from their roles.

The number of quits decreased by 157,000 to 3.06 million in July, from a slightly downwardly adjusted 3.21 million.

Additionally, the quits rate—the number of employees who resign as a share of total employment—dipped to 1.9 percent, from 2 percent. This is the lowest level since 2020.

Economists use quits as a signal of workers’ confidence in submitting their resignation letters.

‘Goldilocks Scenario’

Various labor market indicators will be published this week, including the August nonfarm payrolls report.

The consensus estimate calls for 58,000 new jobs. The Chicago Fed’s model-implied probabilities suggest the unemployment rate will be unchanged.

“The one thing the Street needs to avoid is another negative payroll print or a sharp rise in unemployment that suddenly raises recession concerns,” Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

“The hope is for modest job creation, stable unemployment, and contained wage growth.

“That would be the Goldilocks scenario.”

Although new hiring has been limited, RBC economists say the overall employment situation is steady.

“Ultimately, if the labor market were weakening, the holistic picture would say so,” they said in an Aug. 28 research note, adding that any tightness is a “supply story.”

“As of late, the move lower in the unemployment rate has been a labor force participation story.

“The tightness that we have been witnessing continues to be a supply story as retirements remain elevated and immigration stays exceptionally low.”

Before the highly anticipated August jobs report, ADP’s private payrolls data, Challenger’s layoffs numbers, and weekly unemployment claims will be released.