Don’t Delay Recommitting to AUKUS

Commentary

Sept. 15 is the fourth anniversary of the Australia–United Kingdom–United States (AUKUS) partnership established to develop an Australian nuclear submarine enterprise. Achieving this objective was never going to be easy or cheap, but all three parties are honoring their commitments and making progress.

The upside of AUKUS for the United States is twofold. It supports the U.S. goal to deter China from a war in this decade, and it is invigorating domestic American submarine construction with Australian money: more than $800 million so far.

However, amid nagging concerns that U.S. shipbuilders may be unable to meet the increased shipbuilding demand, the Department of Defense has initiated a review of AUKUS. The results are anticipated this fall, which Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, while at the recent Submarine Institute of Australia conference, welcomed as something that can bring added focus and improvement to the AUKUS enterprise.

For the time being, the question hangs in the air: Will leadership in the Pentagon recommend cancellation, modification, or maintaining the current course of action? The longer uncertainty clouds Washington’s commitment to AUKUS, the more progress and investments may stall. A prompt conclusion is needed to prevent costly second guessing.

Why Nuclear Submarines for Australia?

Since the peak of the Cold War, Australian naval leaders have recognized that Australia’s reliance on distant sea lanes necessitated the endurance and speed of nuclear submarines. But with the end of the Cold War, a compromise was made for the development of the conventionally powered Collins-class and its successor, the failed Attack-class program.

Until the advent of AUKUS, China did not exhibit significant concern over U.S. military presence in Australia. However, Beijing’s perception shifted with the prospect of an increased number of nuclear submarines nearby that it could not counter.

Consequently, there have been persistent reports of a heightened Chinese naval presence in nearby waters and foreign investments in the greater Perth area and in HMAS Stirling, the naval base where AUKUS nuclear submarines will be stationed. As elsewhere, such presence can facilitate intelligence gathering and provide a platform for United Front efforts to undermine local support for the AUKUS initiative. This isn’t a supposition: A 2019 scandal broke when elected officials were found to have connections to the Chinese Communist Party.

The overarching strategy for AUKUS, referred to as the “optimum pathway,” encompasses the deployment of increased American and British nuclear submarines to Stirling to sensitize the local community and build-up local infrastructure. A pivotal milestone is approaching, and substantial progress has been made, yet concerns remain.

In 2027, the inaugural U.S. and British nuclear submarines will establish a permanent presence at Stirling. Following a recent visit by this author, the base appears ready, given the success of several recent nuclear submarine visits, including an apparent unplanned repair stop. However, the establishment of a permanent base entails an additional challenge beyond hosting crews and submarine replenishment capabilities.

The proximity of nearby shipyards and the presence of a diverse range of local and foreign firms present a challenge. When the first nuclear submarine makes Stirling home, substantial shipyard capacity, particularly for a dry dock, will be required. Currently, this capacity is lacking, and in order to deal with surrounding commercial activity, a significant reorganization will be needed in and around the so-called Henderson Defence Precinct. The likely interim disruption this will cause can be mitigated with a floating dry dock.

For example, Henderson’s and Stirling’s facilities must simultaneously support the existing Collins submarine fleet, host an expanding fleet of surface warships, and potentially accommodate domestic production for Australia of Japan’s Mogami-class frigates. Consequently, relocating commercial activities from the naval shipyard and conducting planned naval maintenance and shipbuilding necessitates the immediate addition of shipyard capacity.

During a recent week-long visit by this author to the greater Perth region, it became evident that there is ample political support, 67 percent popular support, and substantial Australian resources dedicated. Nevertheless, it’s critical that the intricate waterfront reorganization be resolved in a timely manner so that the arrival of the first nuclear submarine to Stirling isn’t compromised.

All told, the challenges ahead for AUKUS are well within Western Australia’s capacity to overcome, should Canberra and Washington stay the course. The only logical conclusion for the review in Washington is recommitting to AUKUS and making any needed adjustment, since an AUKUS success is a win for the United States.

From RealClearWire

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.